Rovell: The Value Play on Packers’ Team Total
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.
You know the classic square line: That life is too short to bet unders.
But any sharp knows that this sentiment can be the catalyst for some incredibly valuable unders. The more the public is bullish about an over — typically with faulty data — the more books are forced to move it upward.
And often, that’s where you’ll be able to find a betting edge in the totals market.
So, I love fading the public on totals. And I also love fading recency bias.
In three of the last four games, the Packers have scored 31, 17, 33 and 28 points. But even including those scores, their season average is 20.2 points per game, 22nd in the NFL.
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While the Packers are a better team than they were to start out the year, their offense hasn’t improved all that much from earlier this season, when Green Bay was struggling to put up 20 points per contest. Receivers consistently miss Aaron Rodgers’ calls, protection breaks down like Jenga and, frankly, the four-time MVP has lost a bit of a step.
It also doesn’t help that his main offensive lineman in David Bakhtiari will be out tonight for the second straight game.
Yet despite all these factors, the retail bettors are all on the Packers to put up some points on an Aaron Donald-less defense. Their team total at o23.5 points (-125) at BetMGM is one of the sportsbook’s most popular bets tonight.
That’s a big reason why I’m rolling with the under at a -105 vig at BetMGM.
Fade the public and the Packers’ recent success with a team total that blows past the key numbers of 17 and 20 with three points to spare.