Week 4 NFL Player Props: Should You Bet on Josh Rosen to Throw Multiple Interceptions?


Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Rosen

Sep 28, 2018, 03:34 PM EDT
  • Josh Rosen's interception total highlights one of our favorite NFL player props for Week 4.
  • See where the value is on the over/under of 1 interception for the Cardinals rookie quarterback making his first career start against the Seahawks.

Cardinals rookie quarterback Josh Rosen will make his first career start Sunday at home against the Seahawks. This will be the 10th overall pick’s first real chance to back up his draft day assertion that “there were nine mistakes ahead of [him].”

Rosen’s debut didn’t go as planned last week, as he wound up with more interceptions (1) than touchdowns (0) after throwing seven fourth-quarter passes against the Bears.

>> Check out the FantasyLabs prop tool to see all of the NFL Week 4 prop bets offering value according to our industry-leading projections. All odds referenced here are as of 2 p.m. ET on Friday.

Over/Under 1 Interception for Josh Rosen in Week 4? (-160/+120)

Some pundits labeled Rosen as the 2018 draft’s most pro-ready quarterback, but the Cardinals’ lack of creativity on offense and injury-riddled offensive line have led to a league-worst 20 points after 12 quarters of football.

The Action Network’s director of predictive analytics, Sean Koerner, has supplied us with his own odds on how many times the Seahawks could pick off Rosen this weekend.

Note that Koerner has given the rookie fairly high interception odds compared to the typical quarterback:

  • 0 interceptions: 33.3%
  • 1 interception: 36.6%
  • 2 interceptions: 20.1%
  • 3 interceptions: 7.4%
  • 4 interceptions: 2.0%
  • 5 interceptions: 0.4%
  • 6 interceptions: 0.1%

The current -160 odds on the over seem a bit inflated considering Koerner is giving us a 69.9% chance of either winning or pushing under one interception at +120.

Of course, Rosen threw at least one interception in 15-of-30 career games at UCLA, and he faces a ball-hawking Seattle defense that is one of only eight units with more than 20 interceptions since Week 1 of the 2017 season.

It would behoove the Cardinals to take a conservative approach on offense, as they boast the week’s largest disadvantage in combined pressure rate at the line of scrimmage. The matchup also features the week’s fourth-slowest combined situation neutral pace, so both offenses’ overall play volume could be limited.

I’ll take my chances on Rosen not throwing an interception Sunday.

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