Seahawks vs. Dolphins Betting Guide: Odds & A Pick On A Total That’s Still Not High Enough
Abbie Parr/Getty Images. Pictured: Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett.
- Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks hit the road to take on the Miami Dolphins as 5.5-point favorites.
- With a total of 55.5 points, expectations for scoring in this Sunday showdown are already high, but is this line high enough?
- Our NFL betting analyst Mike Randle doesn't thinks so. He explains why there's still value on the over if you can find the right odds.
Seahawks vs. Dolphins Odds
The undefeated Seattle Seahawks journey cross-country to face a 1-2 Miami Dolphins team in rebuilding mode. With Russell Wilson posting historic numbers, should Seattle feel comfortable getting into a shootout with unpredictable Miami quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick?
Even with the second-highest total on Sunday’s slate, there’s still value on the over. Let’s take a closer look.
The Seattle secondary has struggled to defend the pass all season. The Seahawks rank 29th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Seattle has yielded an average of 47.9 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts, more than 40% more than the second-worst team (Dallas).
The Seahawks will also be without two key pieces of that secondary, with cornerback Quinton Dunbar (knee) and safety Jamal Adams (groin) both missing the game. In addition, starting cornerback Shaquill Griffin is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Seattle will need to rely on its stiff run defense, which ranks fourth-best in the league per Football Outsiders. Through the first three games, opposing running backs have produced only 2.7 yards per carry against the Seahawks’ defensive front.
Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has finally unleashed Wilson on the NFL, making fantasy owners forever thankful. Seattle ranks second in the league at 37 points per game, with Wilson leading the NFL in passing touchdowns (14) and fantasy points per game (33.3).
Both Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf have been spectacular this season. Last week, Wilson connected with Lockett for three touchdowns passes en route to the overall fantasy QB2 and WR1 performances, respectively.
Lockett ranks sixth in targets (29), third in receptions (24) and second overall in PPR fantasy points per game (24.6), while Metcalf is fourth in air yards and is eighth with 19.2 fantasy points per game. Now they face a Dolphins secondary that was scorched by Stefon Diggs (8/153/1) and John Brown (4/82/1) in their Week 2 home loss to Buffalo. Miami’s top cornerback Byron Jones (groin) is listed as doubtful, making Seattle’s path to scoring even easier.
The Seahawks received good news, with lead running back Chris Carson practicing in full Friday after suffering a knee injury against Dallas. He’s listed as questionable but is expected to play, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
The Dolphins earned their first win of the season in Week 3 with an impressive 31-13 win in Jacksonville. Fitzpatrick started to heat up, connecting on an incredible 90% (18-of-20) of his passes for 198 total yards and three total touchdowns.
Miami should be able to attack the Seattle secondary with receivers DeVante Parker and Preston Williams. Seattle has allowed more than 430 passing yards per game and these opposing wideouts have put up these numbers:
- Julio Jones (ATL): 9 catches/157 yards/0 touchdowns
- Calvin Ridley (ATL): 9/130/2
- Russell Gage (ATL): 9/114/0
- Julian Edelman (NE): 8/179/0
- Michael Gallup (DAL): 6/138/1
- Cedric Wilson (DAL): 5/107/2
Parker was a fantasy league-winner down the stretch last season, parlaying his connection with Fitzpatrick into big weekly performances. But using the RotoViz Stat Explorer, we can see that Parker has yet to match his incredible 2019 year-end efficiency:
Williams caught his first touchdown catch in Week 3 and is now freed from the gauntlet of cornerback matchups that included Stephon Gilmore, Tre’Davious White and dynamic rookie C.J. Henderson.
Miami tight end Mike Gesicki is also a big-play threat, as evidenced of his eight catches for 130 yards and a touchdown in Week 2 against Buffalo.
The Dolphins’ offense will need to score points to stay competitive, as their defense will likely provide little resistance for Seattle. Miami ranks last in defensive DVOA, including 25th against the pass and 32nd against the run.
The second-highest projected game total on the early Sunday slate belongs to Seattle and Miami. I can’t see how this game stays competitive unless it is high scoring. Per our public betting data, 87% of the bets and 92% of the money is on the over as of writing. And while I usually prefer to fade the public, I simply can’t in this matchup.
Fifty-five is a key number for totals, so I would only feel comfortable betting the over up to the 54.5 points.
Pick: Over 54.5