The Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) host the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) in the Week 7 edition of NFL Thursday Night Football on October 16. Kickoff from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio, is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Steelers are 5.5-point favorites over the Bengals on the spread (Steelers -5.5); the game total is 44.5 points. Pittsburgh is a -340 moneyline favorite; Cincinnati is a +210 underdog.
Below, you can find our Steelers vs Bengals picks for Thursday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, game total, and three player props.
Steelers vs Bengals Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
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  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Thursday Night Football Odds
- Steelers vs Bengals Moneyline: Steelers -260, Bengals +210
- Steelers vs Bengals Spread: Steelers -5.5, Bengals +5.5
- Steelers vs Bengals Total: 44.5 (-115o / -105u)
Steelers vs Bengals odds via bet365
Steelers vs Bengals Spread Prediction
It was an admirable Bengals debut for Joe Flacco given the circumstances and his opponent this past Sunday against the Packers. There are two crucial takeaways from the box score when assessing his performance — his propensity to get rid of the ball in rhythm and his ability to get the ball to his playmakers.
Flacco was sacked on just 2.2% of his dropbacks versus the Packers, which is important in projecting Cincinnati's offense moving forward as the offensive line struggles in protection, ranking 32nd in pass block win rate. Flacco ranks fifth in the league in turnover-worthy throw rate, which is a significant upgrade from what Browning was providing at the position.
As I noted above, Flacco focused on targeting his playmakers. Tee Higgins set a season high in receptions and yards, while Ja'Marr Chase had his most targets and receptions in a game since Week 2 when Joe Burrow was injured.
I am still not convinced the Steelers are a great team. Their running game ranks last in the NFL in yards before contact per attempt and they get runs stuffed at the line of scrimmage at the fourth-highest rate. The Steelers' offensive line has struggled in protection, ranking 31st in pass block win rate.
Since the beginning of last season, home underdogs of more than three points inside of the division are 17-12-1 against the spread, covering at a 58.6% rate.
Specifically in the AFC North, home 'dogs of more than a field goal are 8-3 against the number since the start of 2020 season, covering at a 72.7% rate.
I really like this spot for the Bengals to make this a competitive game and would play them down to +4.5.
Pick: Bengals +5.5; bet to +4.5
Steelers vs Bengals Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
While it’s been fun over the past few years, I’m finding it hard to believe that Joe Flacco can swoop in and save another offense from collapsing this season. His Bengals debut saw him throw for less than five yards per attempt, trying to march down the field with small plays but failing to connect on much downfield.
That was enough for just two touchdowns and 18 total points against the Packers, and now he’s facing another top-five pass defense by DVOA in the Steelers. The task is made even more difficult by the short week, since Flacco won’t have had much time to build chemistry with the Bengals pass catchers.
It doesn’t look much better for the Bengals’ rushing attack either. Cincinnati ranks 31st in adjusted line yards on offense, and dead last (by a wide margin) in rushing yards per game at 56.7 – more than 25 yards less than any other team.
Pittsburgh also isn’t going to force the issue offensively, especially if and when they build a lead. They’ve won a game by multiple scores just once this season – a 23-9 victory over the Browns last week. Especially on a short week, they’ll be content to manage the game and chew clock, rather than take any chances for the Bengals to force a mistake and get back into the game.
All of which makes it hard to see where points will come from here. The total has already dropped two points after opening at 46.5, but it wouldn’t shock me if this game stayed under 40. I’ll gladly take the under 44.5, which is -110 at Caesars at the time of writing but has already been juiced up at other books. I’d continue to bet it down to 43.5 at -110, or 44/44.5 up to -120.
Pick: Under 44.5
Steelers vs Bengals Player Props: Ja'Marr Chase
Ja'Marr Chase has had a rough QB situation this season with Joe Burrow sidelined, but he's more than good enough to make an impact if he gets the ball in space.
Joe Flacco came in on a short week against the Packers and did what he was doing for the Browns — he slung the ball 45 times, 12 of which went to Chase.
With the Bengals a 5.5-point underdog tonight and completely unable to get anything going with the rushing game, Flacco is likely going to be slinging the ball again.
Chase was targeted on two of Flacco's seven red-zone attempts last game, and I'm expecting Chase to be the go-to target in the red zone again tonight.
I have Chase's true odds around +120.
Pick: Ja'Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150)
Steelers vs Bengals Touchdown Prop: DK Metcalf
By Kyle Murray
DK Metcalf has been in a groove lately, scoring a touchdown in four straight games as his connection with Aaron Rodgers grows.
Metcalf has also benefited from the Steelers not having much talent at the wide receiver position beyond him, which has resulted in him dominating the targets. He had a season-high 12 targets last week against the Browns.
He now gets a great matchup against a Bengals defense that is in the bottom 5 against the pass this season.
Pick: DK Metcalf Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155)
Steelers vs Bengals Player Props: Jaylen Warren
By Kyle Murray
This is a great matchup for Jaylen Warren considering that the Bengals have been putrid defending RBs all season.
The Bengals have been a bottom-5 defense against the rush; they have allowed the third-most yards per carry and fifth-most receiving yards to RBs.
Steelers rookie RB Kaleb Johnson was more involved last week than we would like to see for this prop, but that will likely hurt Kenny Gainwell in the long run more than Warren. We will likely always see Warren at a minimum of a 50% snap share.
I think Warren could go over this number on rushing yards alone, but I prefer including the receiving yards in this matchup. The Bengals have allowed the most yards after catch in the NFL, so we could see Warren get loose in the passing game as well.
Pick: Jaylen Warren Over 67.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
