Raiders vs. Steelers Picks For NFL Week 2: How To Bet Sunday’s Over/Under In Pittsburgh
Stephen Lew/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ben Roethlisberger
Raiders vs. Steelers Odds
|Steelers Odds||-6 (-110)|
|Raiders Odds||+6 (-110)|
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
Raiders vs. Steelers Picks
Chris Raybon: After a career-low 7.6 aDOT last season, Ben Roethlisberger started the year off by averaging a 6.2 aDOT in Week 1.
Gus Bradley’s Raiders defense ended up 10th in pass-defense DVOA in Week 1, with Vegas getting eight pressures and three sacks despite blitzing only 7.7% of the time, tied for second-lowest. This sets up for another dink-and-dunk affair for the Steelers offense.
On the other side, the Steelers defense held Buffalo’s explosive offense to just 16 points last week while blitzing a league-low 1.8% of the time. This is the exact opposite of a Ravens defense that blitzed on 34.4% of Derek Carr’s dropbacks, a tactic that ultimately cost them the game when they sent the house in overtime and allowed Raiders fourth-string receiver Zay Jones to easily run past their best corner, Marlon Humphrey, right into the end zone for a 31-yard TD. The Raiders with be without starting right tackle Denzelle Goode (ACL), starting left guard Richie Incognito (calf) and starting running back Josh Jacobs (toe/ankle).
Pick: Under 47 (to 46)
Click the arrow to read Raybon’s DFS analysis
Najee Harris played 100% of the snaps in Week 1 and is thus cash-game viable despite the underwhelming performance against the Bills (16-45-0 rushing and 1-4-0 receiving).
Baltimore’s running game is leaps and bounds better than Pittsburgh’s thanks to the former’s offensive line, but it’s still noteworthy that Vegas allowed 142 yards and two TDs on 26 touches to Baltimore’s makeshift running back group. There are still enough questions about the Steelers offensive line, however, for me to prefer Ezekiel Elliott over Harris in cash games on DraftKings for $100 less.
Whereas last week set up well for slot receiver Juju Smith-Schuster, who led all Steelers wideouts with 52 yards, this matchup sets up better for Dionate Johnson and Chase Claypool on the outside after the Raiders got hit up for 10-165-1 on 14 targets by Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins last week.
Kenyan Drake is a season-long RB2 who is viable in GPPs. In Week 1, a banged up Josh Jacobs played 45-of-86 snaps (52.3%) while Drake played the other 41 (47.7%). The fact that no other halfback got into the game despite it going to overtime and the Raiders piling up 86 snaps tells me Drake has a high ceiling, usage-wise, despite how much Gruden talks up Peyton Barber.
Gruden is understandably still punch-drunk on practice-squad-caliber talent after Zay Jones caught the winning score on Monday Night, so it’s not entirely out of the question that he plays the practice-squad-caliber Barber more than he should, but Drake is a good enough mix of volume upside and price to sprinkle in in large-field GPPs.
The Steelers’ ability to wreak havoc on Buffalo’s offense without even blitzing puts them in a good spot to pay off as a cash-game play on DraftKings at $3,000. They’re larger favorites (-6.5) than the similarly priced Cardinals ($2,900, -3.5) and Saints ($3,100, -3.5).
The Steelers finished No. 1 in DVOA versus tight ends last season. This is a week to let others pay up for Darren Waller.
- Cash-viable plays: Najee Harris, Steelers DST
- GPP Plays: Kenyan Drake, Dionate Johnson, Chase Claypool