It all comes down to Super Bowl 53.
See the latest betting market news as well as trends you should know before finalizing your wagers for the showdown between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams.
Betting Market
Rams Money (Finally) Shows Up
When the Patriots moved from pick’em to -2.5 shortly after opening behind more than 80% of spread bets and dollars, nobody thought it would hold up.
Yet, here we are two weeks later, and they're still -2.5 and getting 70% of bets and 67% of dollars as writing (see live betting data).
One sign that Rams money is starting to hit the market: The consensus spread is Patriots -2.5 (-103), meaning that the line will likely move to -2 before it goes up to -3. Sharp money hit Los Angeles on Sunday morning, too.
Still, the Patriots are easily the most popular Super Bowl bet we've tracked going back to 2003.
The over/under has seen some movement, too, but much more gradual. It’s shifted from 58.5 to 56.5, slowly ticking down by a half point since opening. — Mark Gallant
Betting market trends
Sixteen different Super Bowls have seen the point spread move a point and a half or more between the opening and closing lines.
The team that saw the point spread move in their direction are 14-2 straight up and 12-4 against the spread in Super Bowl history. — Evan Abrams
Over the Pats' past seven Super Bowl appearances, they are 2-0 ATS when they receive 60% or more of the bets and 0-5 ATS when they receive 59% or fewer, per our Bet Labs data. — Abrams
The Pats are on pace to be just be the 10th team since 2003 to close with 70% or more of bets in a playoff game. The previous nine teams went 6-3 SU and ATS. — John Ewing
The Patriots-Rams over/under opened 58.5 and has been bet down to 56.5. Since 2003, it's been profitable to bet the under when the line decreases in the NFL playoffs. — Ewing
The Action Network Spread
Our proprietary power ratings, powered by Sean Koerner's projections, make the spread for this game Rams -0.2.
Super Bowl 53 Trends
Tom Brady and the Patriots
This is Brady's ninth Super Bowl. The GOAT is 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS in the championship game, and his five ATS losses ties him with the Broncos for the most losses ATS in Super Bowl history. — Ewing
The other side of this? Brady is currently tied with three other quarterbacks for the most point spread covers in Super Bowl history entering Super Bowl 53. — Abrams
- Joe Montana: Super Bowls 16, 19, 24
- Roger Staubach: Super Bowls 6, 10, 12
- Terry Bradshaw: Super Bowls 9, 13, 14
- Tom Brady: Super Bowls 36, 49, 51
All eight of Brady’s Super Bowls have been decided by one possession (eight points or less). — Abrams
In Brady’s eight Super Bowls, the underdog in the game is 6-2 ATS. — Abrams
We know that Brady is the older, more experienced quarterback in Super Bowl 53, but if there's one betting stat which magnifies that, it’s this: In his career, Brady has covered the spread in 20 postseason games. Jared Goff has covered the spread in 18 games in total in his career. — Abrams
