Texans vs Titans Prediction & Pick: NFL Week 17
Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry (left) and C.J. Stroud.
Texans vs Titans Prediction & Pick: NFL Week 17
Texans vs Titans odds have the Texans installed as 4-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 44 total points. For my Texans vs Titans prediction and pick for NFL Week 17, I'll be targeting the first-half moneyline.
Playoff hopes are obsolete for the Titans, but the Texans are right on the cusp of the postseason. Houston sits eighth entering Sunday, on the outside looking in. However, if the Texans can take down their AFC South rival at home, they will find themselves with a 54% chance to make the playoffs. Houston also gets a massive boost with the return of quarterback C.J. Stroud, who missed the last two games with a concussion.
Texans vs Titans Prediction & Pick
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Texans vs Titans Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +165 |
C.J. Stroud is back at quarterback for Houston after suffering a concussion in Week 14 that sidelined him for two weeks.
With or without Stroud, the Texans' offensive stats don’t pop off of the sheet. They average the 12th-most yards per play, which is near the middle of the pack. They also have one of the worst rushing offenses, averaging less than four yards per attempt.
The Texans, however, have some redeeming qualities on defense. Their rush defense is allowing the second-fewest yards per attempt, which will be key to stopping this run-heavy Titans offense. The Texans also choose to rush four most of the time, but still produce the fourth-highest pressure rate. Houston is great at forcing the quarterback to make quick decisions while not losing men in coverage to blitz.
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The Titans have had their fair share of issues on offense, averaging under five yards per play and only scoring on 33.5% of their drives.
In years past, the Titans could hang their hat on their ground game. That's not the case this season as they are averaging 4.14 yards per attempt, which ranks 20th.
Tennessee’s defense has left a lot to be desired as well. It does a decent job getting to quarterbacks, but the unit lets teams score way too often and way too quickly. The Titans allow scores on 42.4% of drives, which is the third-most in the league. Tennessee also forces an interception on less than 1% of pass attempts, the lowest rate in the NFL.
However, Tennessee has come out of the gate hot in quite a few of its games this season. The Titans are 9-6 on the first half moneyline and have won the last five first halves.
The graph below shows a team’s expected points added on offense and defense in the first half. You can see that the Titans find themselves amongst great company. The further right a team is, the better their first-half offense is. The further down a team is, the better their first-half defense is.
Texans vs Titans Prediction & Pick
The Titans may not be able to close out games, but they do have a knack for building early leads.
Lucky for us, there is a market for that. I think Tennessee comes out hot, leads at halftime, and then we can flip over to the Dolphins-Ravens game.
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