The Los Angeles Chargers (11-4) host the Houston Texans (10-5) in the first game of the NFL Week 17 Saturday doubleheader on December 27. Kickoff from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. Texans vs Chargers will broadcast on NFL Network.
The Chargers are 1.5-point favorites on the spread (Chargers -1.5); the game total is 39.5 points. The Chargers are -125 favorites on the moneyline; the Texans are +105 underdogs.
Below, you can find our Texans vs Chargers picks for NFL Week 17, which include predictions for the moneyline and three player props.
Texans vs Chargers Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texans vs Chargers Odds
- Texans vs Chargers Moneyline: Texans +105, Chargers -125
- Texans vs Chargers Spread: Texans +1.5, Chargers -1.5
- Texans vs Chargers Total: 39.5
NFL odds via bet365
Texans vs Chargers Over/Under Prediction
If you look at season-long metrics, the Texans and Chargers are evenly matched. DVOA has both offenses ranked 21st and 22nd; Houston holds a slight edge on defense (2nd vs. 9th) and special teams. The line for this game could be explained by the fact that the Chargers don't really have a home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium.
The Texans are showing positive signs on offense, particularly C.J. Stroud and the passing attack. The Texans are still around league average, but the arrow is pointing up.
Don’t be fooled by the Chargers’ performance against the Cowboys — everyone looks good against Dallas. Over the previous six games, the Chargers rank bottom five in offensive DVOA and bottom 10 in both run and pass offense. Their offensive line is in shambles and has no chance against Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
Since 2010, teams that won by 17+ points as underdogs of seven or fewer the following week are just 68-121-3 (36%) against the ATS (36%). Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is also showing a 16% ROI as a moneyline underdog.
I am in love with this Texans defense. Their pass rush is elite, proven by the fact that they allow the lowest EPA/dropback in the NFL. The rush defense is good, ranking in the middle of the pack in rush EPA/play allowed.
The Texans' defensive line will be facing off against a Chargers offensive line that is being pieced together week by week and is without the likes of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. RG Mekhi Becton is also questionable to play in this game.
The Chargers had a big Week 16 against the Cowboys, but don't forget Dallas has one of the worst defenses in the league.
Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. could make Saturday a long day for Justin Herbert in this playoff rematch.
Pick: Texans Moneyline (+114)
Texans vs Chargers Player Props: C.J. Stroud
By Nick Giffen
C.J. Stroud has 24 scrambles in 12 starts this year, and with two of those starts cut short he really is averaging closer to 2.2 scrambles per 100% of snaps.
Stroud's 5.7% scramble rate is set to go up in this game, as the Chargers do some things that promote QB scrambling. Namely, they have a top-10 pressure rate over expectation (PrROE) and they play a lot of two-high safety looks, keeping an extra man out of the box, yielding more room for scrambles.
That means the Chargers have allowed a top-10 raw scrambling rate to QBs, and a 0.25% scramble rate over expectation, which would put Stroud a tick shy of a 6% scramble rate.
At 38 projected dropbacks, that's 2.25 scrambles. The Chargers allow 7.33 yards per scramble, and Stroud averages 7.95 yards per scramble, so two scrambles should, on average, put him well clear of this line.
Stroud may have a designed run or sneak in there, of which he's had 16 in 12 games, which should gain him an extra yard or two on average, but should also relatively balance out with any potential kneeldowns.
That means I have Stroud clearing this line around 61.5% of the time just on scrambles alone.
I even have him clearing 12.5 nearly 55.5% of the time, so I'm fine with this at -114 at FanDuel if that's your only option.
Pick: C.J. Stroud Over 10.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Texans vs Chargers Anytime Touchdown Pick
By Derek Carty
There may be some value on the anytime touchdown scorer prop for Texans tight end Cade Stover.
THE BLITZ is projecting Stover to record 0.11 touchdowns, and the oddsmakers are implying 0.07. The model believes there is a 12% chance he records at least one touchdown, so there is value at +1200.
This play is good down to at least +836.
Pick: Cade Stover Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+1200; bet to +836)
Texans vs Chargers Props: Jayden Higgins
By Derek Carty
THE BLITZ is forecasting 2.4 receptions for Texans wide receiver Jayden Higgins compared to 3.13 receptions implied by the sportsbooks. Higgins has stayed under 2.5 receptions in 8-of-15 games this season, including his last two games.
If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 60% of the time, resulting in a 38% ROI.
Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $37.87. This play is good down to at least -111.
Pick: Jayden Higgins Under 2.5 Receptions (+128; bet to -111)
