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Trevor Lawrence Player Props: Expert Targeting Jaguars QB’s Passing Yards vs Chargers

Trevor Lawrence Player Props: Expert Targeting Jaguars QB’s Passing Yards vs Chargers article feature image
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Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

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Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards

Prop Under 248.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Matchup Jaguars vs. Chargers
Day, Time Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Best Book DraftKings

While former No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence has shown early signs of improvement, the Jaguars have had the second-easiest DVOA strength of schedule through two weeks. That changes in Week 3.

The Clemson product will travel across the country to face the Los Angeles Chargers. This defense has a 10-day rest advantage and is coming off holding Patrick Mahomes to just 235 passing yards.

There is a glaring mismatch between the Chargers pass-rush duo of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack against the Jaguars’ 26th-ranked offensive line. Lawrence saw his numbers dip when blitzed after having just a 30.0% pressured completion percentage last season. This ranked 28th among all quarterbacks, and the Chargers registered a 36% Blitz Rate in Week 2.

Looking at the secondary, cornerback J.C. Jackson should benefit off a long period of rest and help with outside coverage. He had a 83.0 coverage grade in 2021, per Pro Football Focus.

His star teammate Derwin James is the highest-graded defensive back through Week 2 and plays everywhere on the field. His defensive presence will be felt and help play a role in limiting Lawrence’s favorite weapon, Christian Kirk (97.5 yards per game), from producing. Removing Kirk will make it harder to move the ball down the field.

Ultimately, this reads as a sell-high spot for the rising-sophomore. Lawrence has thrown for 248 or more yards in just four of his 19 career games. Both the Commanders (20th) and Colts (29th) were below average in terms of pass DVOA. Now having to face Brandon Staley’s elite Chargers defense, I predict Lawrence will struggle and stay under this passing prop.

Pick: Trevor Lawrence Under 248.5 Passing Yards

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