Vikings vs. Cowboys Betting Odds & Picks: An Over/Under Angle for Sunday Night Football

Vikings vs. Cowboys Betting Odds & Picks: An Over/Under Angle for Sunday Night Football article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott

  • Our experts analyze the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys.
  • Find betting odds, our staff's picks, a breakdown of the biggest mismatch and much more below.

Vikings at Cowboys Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Cowboys -3
  • Over/Under: 48
  • Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: NBC

Odds as of noon ET on Sunday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Public tickets and money have poured in on the over, raising this Sunday Night Football total up to 48.5 after opening at 45.5 — but should you follow suit?

Our experts analyze every angle of the Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys matchup in primetime, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick.

Sunday Night Football Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Cowboys

Both teams are pretty healthy heading into this game. The difference is Amari Cooper (knee/ankle) is fully expected to play Sunday night, while the Vikings will be without Adam Thielen (hamstring). Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Cowboys Interior O-Line vs. Vikings DT Jaleel Johnson

Mike Zimmer is one of the best coaches in the league at getting his team prepared to go on the road — he is 16-11 against the spread as road underdog, per our Bet Labs data — but facing the Cowboys’ top tier O-line without stud DT Linval Joseph (knee) will be one of Zimmer’s toughest challenges yet.

Johnson — a fourth-rounder out of Iowa in 2017 who has played 476 defensive snaps in his career — is a big drop-off from Joseph, a two-time Pro Bowler. Pro Football Focus gives Johnson a grade of 58.5, 93rd among DTs and 16.4 points below Joseph.

Travis Frederick
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Travis Frederick (72), Amari Cooper (19)

Johnson will go up against one of the best centers in the game in Travis Frederick, who has been selected to four Pro.Bowls and made 2017 First-Team All Pro. Frederick, along with guards Zack Martin and Connor Williams spearheads a unit that is ranked No. 1 in the league in adjusted line yards (per Football Outsiders), No. 1 in stuff rate (11%), No. 2 in power success rate (77%) and No. 5 in adjusted line yards up the middle (5.04).

Opponents were already targeting the Vikings up the gut with success (Minnesota is ranked 25th in middle adjusted line yards allowed). Why? Because whomever lines up at the other DT spot next to Joseph is always going to be the weak link for a line that boasts a pair of monsters at defensive end like Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen.

If the Vikings end up dropping Jason Garrett to 20-32-1 ATS as a home favorite, they’ll likely have to do it by selling out against the run, which is a risky proposition against Dak Prescott, Cooper, Michael Gallup and Co.

The key for Minnesota will be MIKE ‘backer Eric Kendricks, the No. 1-graded linebacker in the league against the run, per PFF. If Johnson can’t hold up and Kendricks can’t win against Zeke in the hole, much invisible cereal will be eaten. Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Cowboys -3
  • Projected Total: 46.5

With more than 51% of the tickets and 67% of the money coming in on the over as of Saturday (see live public betting data here), this total has risen to 48.5. Considering this is a SNF contest, we can expect more public action before kickoff, so there should be even more pressure for the total move closer to 50.

Either way, there’s already some slight value on the under as both teams produced bad beats on the under last week.

The Vikings allowed 54- and 44- yard field goals from Harrison Butker in the final minutes of their loss to the Chiefs, allowing the over hit. The Cowboys, meanwhile, returned a Daniel Jones fumble for a meaningless touchdown with six seconds on the clock to go from 48 total points to 55 (when the total was 48.5). I was very careful to not let the last-second TD not impact my total adjustment for this week’s matchup and it could be a small reason why the market is a shade too high here. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Cowboys Live

This line is spot on, but I’ll be looking for Dallas live if I can get better than a field goal early.

Now healthy, the Cowboys offensive line is as good as any in the NFL, so they’re more than capable of neutralizing the Double-A Gap blitzes and edge pressure from the Vikings, who have two of the best coming off the edge in Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. And if Prescott is given a clean pocket, the Cowboys have the talent on the outside to take advantage of what I consider a vulnerable Viking corner group, primarily as a result of Xavier Rhodes, once a lockdown No. 1 corner, getting up there in age.

Throw in the fact that Thielen is out once again, limiting the Vikings aerial attack, and I think the Cowboys will have an easier time moving the ball.

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