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Week 13 Player Props for Latavius Murray: Expert Fading Broncos RB

Week 13 Player Props for Latavius Murray: Expert Fading Broncos RB article feature image
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Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Latavius Murray.

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Latavius Murray Rushing Yards

Prop Latavius Murray Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-117)
Matchup Broncos vs. Ravens
Day, Time Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Best Book Caesars

With Melvin Gordon released and Chase Edmonds on injured reserve, the Broncos turned 32-year-old Latavius Murray into a workhouse in Week 12. Murray was on the field for 82% of Denver’s snaps and ran 13 times for 92 yards against the Panthers. The workload was undoubtedly impressive, but I want to sell high here.

That stat line is a bit misleading when you realize that one of Murray’s 13 carries went for 52 yards. I won’t put too much stock into that burst continuing, considering he ranks 53rd amongst 65 qualified running backs (minimum of 50 rush attempts) in Pro Football Focus’ breakaway percentage (15+ longest rush) model.

As for the matchup, the Ravens defense has been hindering opposing running backs since Week 7 with their third-ranked DVOA against the run and first-ranked explosive run percentage. Baltimore also allows an abysmal 2.62 yards per carry in that timeframe.

Adding stud linebacker Roquan Smith at the trade deadline is quickly paying dividends for Baltimore. D’Onta Foreman had 11 carries for 24 yards against the Ravens, Alvin Kamara had nine carries for 30 yards and Leonard Founette had 24 yards on nine carries.

It is also worth noting that running back Mike Boone will be returning from the injured reserve for the Broncos and should, along with Marlon Mack, get some touches.

The Ravens are heavy home favorites and should give the Broncos a come-from-behind game script. Combined with the already imposing matchup on the ground, I love the chances of Murray failing to hit his rushing yards prop.

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