NHL Best Bets and Player Props for Today: Jonathan Marchessault, Connor McDavid (Saturday, May 6)
Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Jonathan Marchessault #81 of the Vegas Golden Knights.
There’s just one game on the NHL slate: Oilers vs. Golden Knights at 7 p.m. ET. There are two players and three props that I see with value for tonight’s Game 2.
Check out our NHL best bets and player props for Saturday, May 6, as the Stanley Cup playoffs continue.
Oilers vs. Knights Props
Jonathan Marchessault Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
|Pick||Marchessault o2.5 SOG (-130)|
|Puck Drop||7 p.m. ET|
Vegas’ top line of Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel and Marchessault terrorized the Oilers in Game 1 of this series. The trio combined for four points, and combined for 15 shot attempts in 11 minutes of play together at even strength.
Marchessault’s 81.97 xGF% was the best rating in the game, and he had four shots on goal from five attempts. Marchessault is extremely geared towards putting the puck on the net, and if his line continues to spend lots of time in the offensive zone we should always see eye popping personal shot attempt numbers.
His 19.6 shot attempts per 60 is the highest mark of any Knights skater in the playoffs, and that is true to form as he lead the team with 19.9 shot attempts per 60 in the regular season.
Marchessault’s shrinking time on ice numbers so far this postseason are a valid concern with this bet. The Knights are offering four quality offensive units and have effectively used a win by committee approach. Mark Stone’s return also means Marchessault is off of the top powerplay unit.
However the lower time on ice average we have seen in the playoffs has come in large due to how much time the Knights have spent playing in front. The Knights have spent the vast majority of five of seven playoff games playing with a lead.
That could change tonight. Edmonton is a worthy favorite, and I like their chances of evening the series, and leading much of tonight’s game. That should make for a good game script to see Eichel, Marchessault, and Barbashev used more aggressively in a push for offence.
Over 2.5 at -130 projects to hold some strong value in this matchup.
Connor McDavid: Anytime Goalscorer | Multi-Goal Game
|Pick||Anytime Goal (-110) | Multi-Goal Game (+410)|
McDavid has drawn a little criticism for what was somewhat of an off night in Game 1. Even still, he had two primary assists, four shots on goal, and played to a 56% expected goal share. The Oilers were +1 with McDavid on the ice at even strength.
There were some uncharacteristic bobbles in the offensive zone, but by no means do I believe we need to worry about the best player in the game. He also create some high quality scoring chances at even strength for himself, on top of many excellent passes others.
The performance was nothing to be concerned with, but it still would not be surprising to see McDavid bounce back with a trademark performance Saturday.
Potential adjustments on the penalty kill from the Knights on the penalty kill could potentially work in the favor of a McDavid goal. Leon Draisaitl feasted in Game 1 with two of his four goals coming on the powerplay.
Edmonton continues to prove that taking away all of their options on the man advantage is essentially impossible. If you want to press McDavid out high aggressively other options will open up, and Draisaitl has often been the benefactor of that.
If you play a little more passive on McDavid coming down the left flank, this sort of thing can happen.
Ryan Nugent Hopkins to score at anytime is another decent idea if you want to tap into the thought that Vegas will really focus on taking away Draisaitl’s one timer tonight on the man advantage. My one concern with that is that he has been very quiet at five-on-five however, but I think he’s a decent target at +240.
McDavid has scored a single goal in 12 of his last 22 (54.5%) playoff games. If we believe that number holds true moving forward, that would make a solid case for this bet at -110. However it has been clear all season long how far his mid-range shooting has come since even last playoffs, and he is a more well rounded scorer now than he was last season.
I think there is a good case to bet on the best player in hockey breaking through with a tally tonight. Two goals at +410 is another reasonable option.
Pick: Connor McDavid Anytime Goalscorer (-110)
Pick: Connor McDavid 2 or More Goals (+410)
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