NHL Odds, Expert Picks | Best Bets for Martin Necas, Joe Pavelski, Kraken (May 11)
Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Pavelski of the Dallas Stars.
- Thursday's NHL slate features two Stanley Cup Playoff games: Devils vs. Hurricanes and Kraken vs. Stars.
- Nick Martin came through with three best bets for Thursday, including props for Martin Necas and Joe Pavelski.
- Check out all three of his best bets for Thursday's NHL games below.
Thursday's NHL slate features two Stanley Cup Playoff games when the sun goes down: Devils vs. Hurricanes in Raleigh and Kraken vs. Stars in Dallas.
Check out my favorite NHL best bets for Thursday, May 11, as the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue.
NHL Best Bets and Player Props for Thursday, May 11
Martin Necas Any Time Goal Scorer (+275)
| Game | Devils vs. Hurricanes |
| Puck Drop | 7 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
It's logical to expect New Jersey to tighten up its defensive play in this do-or-die spot on the road. Even still, its goaltending situation has become quite concerning, and it's likely that Carolina breaks through with three or more goals in this matchup.
Carolina has put up 5.25 goals per game in this series. That average would not hold over a large sample, but it's still fair to say the Huricanes' implied team total of 3.15 is a little low.
Despite a total of 6 with the over at even money, I believe this is a good time to target a Hurricanes goal scorer.
Necas has created a ton of high-quality looks over the last two matchups. He broke through with two well-earned goals in Game 4. He has been the most offensively dynamic Hurricane forward in the series but hasn't quite had the same level of puck luck as some of the more productive Canes.
He finished second on the team with 28 goals in the regular season and has very much looked to be the team's second-best offensive skater at worst. Necas deserves to be priced just behind Sebastian Aho and Jack Hughes as oddsmakers' most likely skater to score at any time.
A number of +275 makes Necas my favorite goal scorer in this matchup.
Seattle Kraken ML (+170)
| Game | Kraken vs. Stars |
| Puck Drop | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Seattle has been priced as a +170 underdog or larger in each of its six playoff road games. It's have gone 4-2 in those matchups, including crucial victories in Games 5 and Game 7 to cap off a series upset over the Avalanche.
The Kraken have been very competitive with the Stars in this series. A 2-2 scoreline entering Game 5 is exactly what the score deserves to be. Right away, that tells us backing Dallas at -200 may not hold much value.
Seattle likely won't finish with more shots than the Stars tonight, and it'll probably trail in terms of offensive zone time. That's to be expected from most underdog sides, but it's proven to be comfortable in those game states.
There's a difference between breaking down defensively and allowing attempts on goal, which is a point often made by successful playoff underdogs. The Kraken won't own a greater share of the overall play, but they've protected the most dangerous areas of the ice fairly well and avoided critical breakdowns.
They also hold a plethora of legitimate scoring talents littered throughout the lineup who have given Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger problems so far.
The current -200 moneyline suggests the Stars would win this game 67% of the time. You would then need to believe they take it seven out of 10 times to have betting value. I think this game is closer to 60/40 and that we have a good enough price to take a shot with the Kraken.
Joe Pavelski Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+125)
| Game | Kraken vs. Stars |
| Puck Drop | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Philipp Grubauer's play has been surprisingly close to that of Jake Oettinger, making Dallas' greatest advantage its incredible top line of Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson.
For three seasons now, the trio has given the NHL fits. Dallas had stuck with Tyler Seguin in Joe Pavelski's role after Pavelski's return from injury in Game 1 of this series. However, after their defeat in Game 3, they decided to return to what has worked so well.
The results were solid, as the trio combined for three points and nine shots in the contest.
They'll play in some favorable matchups at times in tonight's contest, as the Stars will hold the last change on home ice.
Pavelski is one of the league's more proven playoff performers. His ability to deflect pucks on goal and play in the gritty areas is often the type of offense a team needs in the postseason. He has put up six goals and 15 shots in the opening four matchups of this series.
A number of +125 is an excellent price for Pavelski to record over 2.5 shots on goal.
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