Flyers vs. Devils NHL Betting Odds & Pick: New Jersey Has Value to Get Rare Win (Tuesday, April 27)
Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Mackenzie Blackwood.
- The Devils look to finish the job on Tuesday against the Flyers after an embarrassing collapse on Sunday.
- Philadelphia scored twice in the last two minutes before winning in a shootout after New Jersey dominated the first 58 minutes.
- Nicholas Martin is backing the Devils in the rematch, and he explains why below.
Flyers vs. Devils Odds
|Time||Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Monday and via PointsBet|
The New Jersey are set to host the Philadelphia Flyers at the Prudential Center on Tuesday with eyes on avenging Sunday’s unbelievable collapse. Flyers captain Claude Giroux scored twice inside the final two minutes to tie the game at 3, and he scored another in the shootout en route to a 4-3 Philadelphia win.
The shocking defeat for the Devils extended their losing streak to double digits, dropping five of the contests to a scorching-hot Penguins team and four to the Rangers, who are playing some excellent hockey themselves of late.
This very young Devils core still has a ways to go in terms of learning the intricacies of winning games. Some bad collapses, close losses and a very tough division have added up to a treacherous 29th-ranked record, although at times the team has looked quite promising.
Some will question how much we can tell regarding the strength inside of a division this year, but I believe it is very reasonable to infer the strength of the East Division given that the top four in the Bruins, Capitals, Islanders and Penguins sport the same core groups that have dominated the East for several seasons. Even the Rangers have clearly come around to be of playoff quality in a regular conference layout. The strength of the division has greatly affected New Jersey, as I see them ranked somewhere between 22-25 around the league in a better situation.
Even against strong competition, the Devils have managed a strong xGF% of 52.05 during their 10-game losing streak, and it certainly feels like they could have fared better over the stretch.
It will be interesting to see if the young group finishes the season with some more positive results as they take on the role of spoiler.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.
Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.
It has certainly been a let-down season for Philadelphia and its fans. The Flyers went to Game 7 of the conference semifinals in last year’s playoff bubble, a solid run after a great regular season.
Numerous defensemen have taken a step backwards, and the Flyers have consistently gotten well-below-average goaltending from Carter Hart and Brian Elliott. There certainly have been some positives, and the Flyers likely still would have a playoff spot in the North and West Divisions, which would make the season look less disastrous.
Joel Farabee has cooled off, but the 2018 first-round pick has shown a ton of promise this season. Sean Couturier has missed some time but has been an immensely effective two-way player when in the lineup.
The Flyers sit 20th in expected goals share over the season, and are likely sitting exactly where their play should entail in the East in sixth place. It is a letdown for a talented roster that very reasonably would have been expecting a lot more success this season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
In their first chance to break the losing streak against some more manageable competition on Sunday against Philly, the Devils were the better bunch overall and controlled play for much of the first 58 minutes. They then managed a shocking collapse. The Devils controlled the game to an expected goals differential of +0.86, with seven high-danger chances for compared to Philadelphia’s three.
The Flyers have managed a solid 3-2-1 record over the last six, but I am not chalking it up to improved play, they have simply managed better results as is the nature of hockey. The Flyers have still been outscored 13-17 over those 6 games, and skated to an xGF% of 47.86.
The young Devils certainly have a long way to go in terms of learning the intricacies of winning, but I am willing to take a chance at +105 that they will control the play similar to Sunday’s matchup and find a way to finally close out a win.
Pick: Devils (+115)