NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Bruins vs Kraken (Monday, February 26)
(Photo by Rich Graessle/NHLI via Getty Images) Pictured: Vince Dunn
Bruins vs. Kraken Odds
| Bruins Odds | -150 |
| Kraken Odds | +125 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -115o / -105u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Bruins vs Kraken on Monday, February 26 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Bruins will look to avenge a 4-1 loss to the Kraken on February 15th as they complete their four-game western road swing. Boston has gone to overtime in five straight games, and still owns a one-point lead over the Panthers in the division, despite having six less regulation wins.
Oddsmakers are showing some legitimate concern toward the Bruins' recent play as Boston is a relatively modest betting favorite in a matchup against a non-playoff team.
That being said, my pick for Bruins vs. Kraken is below.
The Bruins blew a 2-0 third period lead Saturday in Vancouver. That game marked the eighth time this season they have lost a game where they held a lead in the third, the most of any team. Considering the way last season's historic run ended in Game 7 versus the Panthers, this has certainly become a narrative fans have seen enough of.
It's particularly interesting because its a trend that goes against the obvious strengths of the Bruins. Boston is known for a strong defensive game, which helps support its incredible goaltending tandem of Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark. The Bruins have allowed only 2.69 goals against per game this season, so it's remarkable how often exactly one of those 2.69 has come at the most inopportune moment.
A big part of it is score effects. The Bruins have been in a defensive shell too early in some of these games, and then not offering themselves any chance to build upon their lead. More recently, a large part of the case has been that the Bruins were pretty favorable in getting a lead.
The Bruins defensive play has been quietly middling for a relatively large sample, and Saturday's game versus a desperate Canucks side wasn't necessarily an outlier. In 10 games since the All-Star break, they have allowed 31 shots against per game. Their xGA/60 of 3.28 is the 16th-highest mark league wide.
Hampus Lindholm will remain sidelined for this matchup, which opens up a lot of extra minutes on the Bruins blue-line. The situation isn't as bad as it sounds though in terms of replacement value. Mason Lohrei now gets a very well deserved role on the second pairing.
Ullmark is likely to get this start after resting versus Vancouver. He has played to a 12.2 GSAx and a .913 save percentage in 28 appearances.
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The Kraken will look to rebound from a relatively shocking 5-2 home loss Saturday, a game that held a ton of significance in the wild-card race.
Vince Dunn got things going with the opening marker 36 seconds into the matchup, making him one of only 13 defenders to hit the double digit plateau in goals this season.
The Kraken own the league's seventh-best xGA/60 this season and have been excellent on defense lately.
Over the past 10 games, the Kraken have played to an 54.09 xGF% in even strength play. They hold a deep lineup filled with strong play-driving skaters, but continue to suffer from modest special teams play and a lack of offensive creativity relative to the NHL's top sides.
Philipp Grubauer has been confirmed as the Kraken's starting goaltender in this matchup and has played to a -4.6 GSAx and .896 save percentage in 20 appearances.
Bruins vs. Kraken
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given the recent signs of weakness in the Bruins' game, the betting prices on this game look fair to me.
One way I want to target the Kraken generating a strong output of shots on goal is by backing Dunn to record Over 2.5 shots on goal. Every game is critical for Seattle's dwindling playoff hopes and I like the chances this matchup is close one way or the other. That should lead to heavy usage for Dunn, who has been excellent this season and of late. He put up 10 shot attempts versus the Wild on Saturday and has attempted an average of 7.8 over the past five games.
Dunn is usually priced around +110 to go Over 2.5, but we're get a better number here because of the Bruins reputation as a top team in terms of shot suppression. However, that hasn't been the case lately and I'm not convinced it will be tonight. Backing Dunn at anything better than +110 to go Over 2.5 provides value.
Pick: Vince Dunn Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +122 (Play to +110)
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