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Canucks vs. Sharks NHL Odds, Picks: Back This Vancouver Trend

Canucks vs. Sharks NHL Odds, Picks: Back This Vancouver Trend article feature image
Credit:

Ben Green/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Oskar Lindblom celebrates with the San Jose bench.

  • The Canucks are favored on the road in Wednesday night's game against the Sharks.
  • Vancouver has been in good form of late, but trends show it maybe shouldn't be favored in this one.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Canucks vs. Sharks Odds

Canucks Odds -120
Sharks Odds +100
Over/Under 6.5 (-122/+100)
Time 10:30 p.m. ET
TV NBCSCA
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

We have a Pacific Division tilt for Wednesday’s nightcap as the seventh-place San Jose Sharks host the sixth-place Vancouver Canucks. These two teams met earlier this season on November 27, with Vancouver grabbing a 4-3 victory in San Jose.

Will the Canucks take care of business once again, or can the Sharks get their revenge on home ice?

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Canucks Start Slowly

The Canucks enter this contest in good form, winning seven of their last 10 games. However, slow starts have been a trend since the end of November as the opposing team has scored the first goal against Vancouver in each of their last four games.

Slated to take the crease for the Canucks is goaltender Spencer Martin, who has had a difficult season. Through 12 appearances between the pipes, he possesses a .892 SV% and 3.37 GAA.

Based on his metrics, positive regression is unlikely. If he qualified, Martin would rank just 30th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5.

Playing in front of Martin is one of the worst defenses in hockey. At 5v5, Vancouver ranks second-to-last in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

The injuries to defensemen Travis Dermott and Tucker Poolman have hurt this team’s depth at the blue line, which has shown to be true through the first quarter of the season. To make matters for this club, their offense is primed for regression.

Despite ranking in the top 10 in the league in goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60) at 5v5, the Canucks rank just 25th in xGF/60 at 5v5. While they have a ton of firepower in the top six with the likes of Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller, and Andrei Kuzmenko, the depth at the forward position is a big concern for this team moving forward.


Sharks Showing Value

The Sharks are trending in the opposite direction, losing eight of their last 10 games. However, this game could be a relatively good spot to buy low on the Sharks against a Vancouver team that is playing better than it really is.

First of all, San Jose’s defense is due for positive regression. At 5v5, the Sharks rank third-last in the league in GA/60 but 16th in xGA/60.

One thing this group does especially well is shut down teams that rely on the power play to score goals, which is bad news for a Canucks team that ranks seventh in the league in power play goals. This season, the Sharks rank fourth in the league in penalty minutes and first in penalty kill percentage at a tremendous 86.2%.

While San Jose has many question marks, its discipline under new head coach David Quinn is not one of them. However, one of the question marks is the Sharks’ ability to play efficiently at even strength.

At 5v5, the Sharks rank just 23rd in the league in xGF/60. Despite this underwhelming ranking, they still rank higher than Vancouver.

Canucks vs. Sharks Pick

Recent forms have led to the wrong team being favored in this contest. At 5v5, the Sharks rank higher than the Canucks in both xGF/60 and xGA/60.

Both goaltenders in this game are terrible, so it is a wash in that department. The biggest edge for San Jose is their ability to stay out of the box and kill penalties at an elite level even when taking one, which is bad news for a Vancouver team that has thrived on the power play.

I like the Sharks to win this game on home ice, however, I am riding the trend of Vancouver starting games slow and taking San Jose to score the first goal in this contest.

Pick: Sharks Score 1st Goal (+102) | Play up to (-115)

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