NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Capitals vs Flyers (Tuesday, April 16)
(Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Pictured: Nic Dowd
Capitals vs. Flyers Odds
| Capitals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 5.5 -120o / 100u | +115 |
| Flyers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 5.5 -120o / 100u | -135 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Washington Capitals vs. Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday, April 16 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Capitals' miraculous season will come down to winning game 82 against another side that has overachieved in John Tortorella's Flyers. A win in any fashion secures postseason qualification for Washington, while Philadelphia will be eliminated if it allows the game to get to overtime, which presents some unique betting scenarios.
The Capitals played arguably their best game of the season last night versus Boston. For once, the win was far from Washington simply relying on incredible play from Charlie Lindgren to steal a victory. It played a nearly perfect defensive game, holding the Bruins to 16 shots on goal.
Washington also led on high danger chances 12-5 per NaturalStatTrick.com, which seems like an accurate summation of the game.
That contest was also an anomaly compared to the Capitals' recent results, and it will be interesting to see how they follow it up in this back-to-back spot on the road. With key defenders Nick Jensen and Rasmus Sandin on the sidelines, John Carlson and Martin Fehervary both logged a hefty 25-plus minutes of ice time yesterday.
Lacking a convincing third pairing, Spencer Carbery will have to rely on that unit heavily again in tonight's game.
Over the Capitals' last 15 games, they own a 48.51% expected goal share. They have generated an average of only 24.27 shots on goal per game, which ranks third last in the league.
A massive reason the Capitals have the chance to steal the final playoff berth has been the exceptional play of Lindgren, who collected a shutout in yesterday's game. He will most likely be given tonight's start given the situation. Lindgren has played to a +9.0 GSAx rating and .910 save percentage across 49 appearances.
The Flyers have bounced back from a horrific eight game losing streak with two quality wins over the Rangers and Devils. In all likelihood their recent losing streak will cost them a playoff berth, but it is foolish to expect anything but a quality effort from them in this matchup.
Over the last 10 games, the Flyers have an expected goal share of 51.77% and solid ratings in most key areas. It would be fair to say that in a number of those games, the data oversells their performance as a team, as even in ugly losses to Montreal and Columbus, the expected goals share looks reasonable.
While Philadelphia's play has tailed off considerably recently, it is also fair to say dreadful goaltending has been the main reason for its recent decline in results.
Samuel Ersson has stopped 44 of the 45 shots he's faced over the last two outings though, and has been confirmed as tonight's starter. He owns a -5.1 GSAx and .890 save percentage in 50 appearances this season.
The Flyers have a clean bill of health, aside from Rasmus Ristolainen and Ryan Ellis, who have both missed the majority of the season.
Capitals vs. Flyers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Prior to Washington's performance yesterday, I felt Flyers -135 would be the right play in this matchup. That's still my lean, but given the way the Capitals played against the Bruins, I will pass, particularly because there are so many more exciting angles to target from this matchup.
This game presents one of the more unique betting opportunities out there, because the Flyers should theoretically pull their goaltender if the game is tied late because they can not allow the Capitals to get a single point.
That note has been making the rounds in the betting world, but is obviously something to keep in mind if the game is tied late, because based on traditional algorithms there will be value betting the Capitals at very long numbers to win in regulation.
In an average one goal game, there is slightly less than a 50% chance of one empty net goal being scored, and a slightly greater than 50% chance of a team hitting the empty net if they own a two goal lead in the final few minutes. This is because the goalie gets pulled earlier in the latter scenario.
So while the Flyers will pull their goalie late, keep in mind there is still a reasonable chance the Capitals would not hit the empty net when you are considering if the price you are getting holds value.
Some oddsmakers seem to be aware of that fact that Philly can not play for a tie. FanDuel's regulation tie price is now +500, which is far longer than we normally see in a game with such even betting prices.
A fun way to target this narrative is by sprinkling on Capitals players who will be on the ice in empty net situations. Nic Dowd is by far the Capitals' best defensive forward, and will always be Carbery's first preference at center in late game situations. He scored the empty net goal that sealed last night's win in Boston.
You can bet Nic Dowd to be the last goalscorer parlayed with the Capitals to win in regulation at +5500 on Bet365, and I believe that is a worthy punt in these circumstances. If the Caps' are up one or two, or the game is tied late, you will have a very exciting sweat.
Tom Wilson, Aliaksei Protas, T.J. Oshie and Carlson are other options to consider sprinkling with this long-shot idea, but I would obviously recommend very small wagers on this type of bet.
I also see value betting Owen Tippett to record over 3.5 shots on goal at +114. He has looked great alongside Morgan Frost recently, and that duo should control the majority of the play in most matchups in this game.
Pick: Nic Dowd Last Goalscorer + Capitals Regulation Win +5500 (Bet365,) Owen Tippett Over 3.5 Shots on Goal +114 (DraftKings, Play to +105)
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