NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Capitals vs Oilers (Wednesday, March 13)
Patrick Smith/Getty Images. PicturedL Washington’s Dylan Strome.
Capitals vs. Oilers Odds
| Capitals Odds | +250 |
| Oilers Odds | -310 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100o / -120u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Washington Capitals vs. Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday, March 13 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Despite a relatively modest trade deadline relative to some contenders, the Oilers remain the Stanley Cup favorite at +700 at DraftKings.
They've played to a solid mark of 6-3-1 over their last 10 games, including an Eastern road swing that concluded with a 4-0 win over Pittsburgh on Sunday.
The Capitals will be playing their second of a treacherous five-game Western road swing in this matchup. They were thoroughly dominated by the Jets last time out but have quietly hung around in the playoff race due to an excellent stretch of results.
Head coach Spencer Carbery's Capitals continue to be a tough out and remain on the heels of the Flyers and Islanders for a shocking playoff berth. They've played to a mark of 8-4-2 over the last month and own an xGF% of 49.9%.
As established veterans have either been traded away or injured, quality young pieces have taken advantage of an opportunity at the NHL level. That has made them an interesting side to watch as a bettor because many of the AHL call-ups are actually outperforming the skaters who were getting minutes, making the Capitals undervalued.
Getting excellent goaltending from Charlie Lindgren has also helped Washington overachieve expectations.He owns a +10.1 GSAx and .912 save percentage across 33 games played this season.
It hasn't been confirmed if Lindgren or Darcy Kuemper will start tonight, but it's more logical that Kuemper would get the start in tomorrow night's game in Seattle.
The Oilers have lost a few games of late after putting up a historically strong January amid a very soft schedule. Still, they own a 54.4% expected goals share since the All-Star break and a solid 10-6-2 record.
They remain a significantly improved side at even strength relative to what we have often seen in the Connor McDavid era.
Compared to other Western heavyweights like Vegas, Colorado and Winnipeg, it was a relatively quiet deadline for Edmonton. General manager Ken Holland acquired Adam Henrique, Troy Stecher and Sean Carrick, as well as the pre-deadline pickup of Corey Perry.
That's clearly not the needle-moving talent that some competitors acquired, but it's still easy to argue that this team is a clear cup contender.
Here's how the Oilers' lines looked at yesterday's practice:
Forwards
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (93) – Connor McDavid (97) – Zach Hyman (18)
- Ryan McLeod (71) – Leon Draisaitl (29) – Warren Foegele (37)
- Evander Kane (91) – Adam Henrique (19) – Connor Brown (28)
- Mattias Janmark (13) – Sean Carrick (39) – Corey Perry (90)
Defense
- Mattias Ekholm (14) – Evan Bouchard (2)
- Darnell Nurse (25) – Vincent Desharnais (73)
- Brett Kulak (27) – Cody Ceci (5)
For a change, the Oilers actually had fewer skaters playing below replacement level than other contenders this season, which was part of the reason for the modest deadline.
It's a common cliche to point out depth players scoring big goals in the playoffs, but what's most important is the superstar talent at the top. The Oilers have that, and it will always be their edge over other heavyweights.
They've done a good job not being overly reliant on McDavid and Leon Draisaitl so far this season, but we know when the going gets tough, their ice time is going to rise significantly. Tthat should put fear in other top sides.
Stuart Skinner is set to start this contest in goal and is the clear No. 1 as Edmonton heads toward the playoffs. He owns a +1.8 GSAx and .907 save percentage across 43 appearances.
Capitals vs Oilers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Capitals have been a scrappy underdog recently and could be more likely to surprise and make this a contest than their massive +240 price tag suggests.
Their recent results have been boosted by a soft schedule, but they also skated well as a heavy underdog against teams like Florida, Boston, Vancouver and Tampa Bay.
Washington is priced at +320 at FanDuel to win the first period. Edmonton has not started well at home recently, allowing the first goal in five of its last six while losing the first period in three of those games.
The makings could be there for a similar start tonight, and I think +320 is too long of a price to pass on that narrative.
I also believe the Capitals' chances of managing a respectable offensive total are being underrated. They're priced at +115 to record over 2.5 goals. While that isn't one of my favorite bets from this game, it's important to note when considering player props, which are directly correlated.
Dylan Strome continues to be the Capitals' most consistent offensive skater. He's put up 23 points over the last 18 games, posting a single point in 14 of those matchups.
Part of Strome's recent surge has been Sonny Milano's offensive play since his return, and their trio was the only line that looked respectable against Winnipeg.
Strome is priced at -105 to record a point at DraftKings, and I believe there's value at anything better than -110. If Tom Wilson remains sidelined and Ivan Miroshnichenko remains alongside Milano and Strome at even strength, betting Miroshnichenko to score any time at +700 would also hold value.
Capitals vs Oilers Best Bets
- Capitals First Period 3-Way Result +320 (Play to +310)
- Dylan Strome Point -105 (DraftKings)
- Ivan Miroshnichenko Anytime Goalscorer +700 (FanDuel · Play to +675)
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