NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Stars vs. Ducks

Stars vs. Ducks Odds

In Wednesday's nightcap, there's a Western Conference tilt with the Pacific Division’s Anaheim Ducks hosting the Central Division’s Dallas Stars.

When these two clubs meet, low-scoring contests are typically in store with six or fewer total goals scored in each of their last six meetings.

Will we get another low-scoring affair, or can the offense pick it up this time around?

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Dallas Stars

The Dallas Stars have been involved in many low-scoring contests recently with six or fewer total goals scored in eight of their last 11 games. This trend should continue on Wednesday, as goaltender Scott Wedgewood is projected to start between the pipes for Dallas.

Despite serving as the backup netminder to Jake Oettinger, Wedgewood has been terrific when called upon. Through 13 appearances in the crease this season, he boasts a .910 save percentage (SV%) and 3.03 goals against average (GAA).

Entering this game in particularly good form, Wedgewood is 2-0-2 with a .929 SV% and 2.32 GAA over his last four starts. Even more impressive, those four games came against Carolina, New Jersey, Minnesota and St. Louis.

Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue for the backup netminder. If he qualified, Wedgewood would rank 14th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

In front of the Stars’ netminder is an underrated blue line that is deeper than just superstar Miro Heiskanen. At 5-on-5, Dallas ranks 11th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

Anaheim Ducks

Like Dallas, the Anaheim Ducks have been involved in many low-scoring contests recently, as there have been six or fewer total goals scored in five of their last six games. The primary reason for these low-scoring contests is Anaheim's terrible offense.

At 5-on-5, Anaheim sits in the basement in pretty much every category, ranking second-to-last in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), fourth-to-last in Corsi for per 60 minutes (CF/60) and fourth-to-last in finishing. A young team full of inexperience and underwhelming talent, there has not been much for Ducks fans to hang their hats on this season other than the potential of landing Connor Bedard in the draft.

Mason McTavish is finally coming into his own, the team knows what it has in Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras, and Adam Henrique continues to serve as a solid veteran presence. Outside of those four guys, nothing has gone right in Anaheim.

Backing up this team is goaltender John Gibson, who has been dealt a bad hand by trying to bail out this team every night in net. While his numbers are poor, that's a reflection of the defense in front of him more than a reflection of his own performance.

Stars vs. Ducks Pick

The trends all point toward the under, and this situation should be a strong candidate for those to continue.

Wedgewood has been a terrific backup to Oettinger, and going against one of the worst offenses in hockey should only make that job easier.

While Anaheim's defense and goaltending are the main concern in this game, it just needs to keep Dallas at four or fewer goals as the Ducks have scored two or fewer goals in eight of their last 11 games.

With how good the Stars' blue line and goaltending are relative to how bad Anaheim's offense is, that trend is likely to continue and should help keep this game under the total.

Pick: Under 6 (+106 · Play to -110)

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