NHL Odds, Picks: Flyers vs. Islanders Prediction, Betting Preview (Saturday, April 8)

NHL Odds, Picks: Flyers vs. Islanders Prediction, Betting Preview (Saturday, April 8) article feature image

Mike Stobe/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: New York Islanders goaltender Ilya Sorokin

  • The Islanders host the Flyers in Saturday night NHL action.
  • Neither of these teams have been lighting up the scoreboard recently, which had led our expert to target the total.
  • Tony Sartori digs into the numbers and offers up his best bet for Flyers vs Islanders below.

Flyers vs. Islanders Odds

Flyers Odds+220
Islanders Odds-278
Over/Under6 (+108/-132)
Time7:30 p.m. ET
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

There is a Metropolitan Division tilt on Saturday evening with the fourth-place New York Islanders hosting the seventh-place Philadelphia Flyers.

Over the past couple of seasons, the under has been extremely profitable when these clubs meet. Six or fewer goals have been scored in eight of the past 11 matchups between the Islanders and Flyers.

Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Flyers vs. Islanders betting pick.

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Philadelphia Flyers

The Philadelphia Flyers enter this contest in a stretch of low-scoring affairs as there have been six or fewer goals scored in five of their past seven games. Philadelphia's uninspired offense is the primary reason for that trend. The Flyers are averaging a mere 2.57 goals scored per game over that span.

This inefficient scoring isn't surprising given the Flyers' poor offensive metrics this season. At 5-on-5, they rank 24th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).

The defense isn't much better, but Philadelphia ranks much closer to the league average in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. Backing up this club is goaltender Carter Hart, who is projected to start Saturday evening.

Despite dealing with the poor team in front of him, Hart has put together another solid campaign. Through 53 appearances, he boasts a .908 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.92 goals against average (GAA).

His underlying metrics are just as strong. Among starting goaltenders, Hart ranks 12th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

New York Islanders

Like the Flyers, the New York Islanders enter this contest amidst a stretch of low-scoring contests. In fact, there have been six or fewer goals scored in three of New York's past four games.

It is not shocking that these teams are typically involved in low-scoring games when they square off. Both clubs' biggest weakness is offensive production, while both blue lines are relatively average, but get bailed out by elite goaltending.

Enter Vezina Trophy candidate Ilya Sorokin, who is projected to start between the pipes for the Islanders. Through 59 appearances this season, Sorokin is 29-21-7 with a .924 SV% and a 2.38 GAA.

Among starting goaltenders, he ranks second in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. So why is a guy this dominant in net just one game over .500 this season?

Well, New York ranks in the bottom-half of the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5, and is 30th in PP%.

Flyers vs. Islanders Pick

Both of these teams boast strong goaltenders and terrible offenses, which is typically a good recipe for the under. Not only are these netminders elite, but each of them boasts previous success against Saturday's opponent.

Over his past six starts against the Islanders, Hart boasts a .931 SV% and a 1.77 GAA. Meanwhile, Sorokin has utterly dominated Philadelphia throughout his career.

Across his 10 starts against the Flyers, he is 7-2-1 with a .938 SV% and a 1.76 GAA. With six or fewer goals scored in eight of the past 11 meetings between these clubs, the under is the play to make Saturday.

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