NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Flyers vs Red Wings (Thursday, January 25)
(Photo by Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images). Pictured: Sean Couturier #14 of the Philadelphia Flyers and J. T. Compher #37 of the Detroit Red Wings.
Flyers vs. Red Wings Odds
| Flyers Odds | +114 |
| Red Wings Odds | -137 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -115o / -105u |
In terms of record, Detroit (24-18-5) and Philadelphia (25-17-6) are almost identical – but that doesn't mean these are similar teams. Let's discuss those key differences while previewing the upcoming contest and offering a Flyers vs. Red Wings prediction and pick.
This contest will be played in Detroit, but that suits the Flyers just fine. One of Philadelphia's key strengths this season has been its phenomenal play on the road, leading to a 14-6-4 away record. Another key strength is the Flyers' defense, which isn't to be confused with their goaltending.
With Carter Hart unavailable, Samuel Ersson is now the de facto No. 1 netminder and likely starter versus Detroit. Ersson's .905 save percentage leaves plenty to be desired, but it's good enough for the Flyers, who are tied for fifth in shots allowed per game at 28.5. Similarly, Philadelphia's xGA/60 of 2.89 ranks eighth in the league, per Moneypuck. Those factors are why Ersson's GAA is just 2.44 despite his mediocre save percentage.
Philadelphia will need to maintain that strong defense Thursday night because Detroit has the clear edge up front. The Flyers rank 22nd offensively this year with 2.94 goals per contest. The problem isn't depth. At this stage of the season, the average team has 5.4 skaters who have reached the 10-goal mark and 7.5 with at least 20 points. Philadelphia has five and 20, respectively, so the Flyers are about average by that measure.
What puts them below the curve is the lack of a superstar forward. Travis Konecny (22 goals, 20 assists) and Joel Farabee (17 goals, 23 assists) are both solid first-line options, but neither of them rank in the top 40 in the scoring race.
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Detroit doesn't have a forward in the running for the scoring title either. While 32 players have reached the 20-goal milestone, none of them are employed by the Red Wings. Dylan Larkin is the closest with 19 goals and 43 points in 41 contests. And yet, while the Flyers rank poorly offensively, Detroit is tied for fifth with 3.49 goals per game.
While Philadelphia has average scoring depth, the Red Wings are phenomenal with 11 players already at the 20-point mark and eight who have supplied double-digit goal totals. On top of that, Jake Walman (nine), Joe Veleno (eight) and Andrew Copp (eight) aren't far behind on the goal-scoring front.
That doesn't even include Patrick Kane, who has seven goals and 16 points in 19 contests. Kane is likely to miss Thursday's game anyway because of a lower-body injury, but that does highlight how dangerous this offense is even without him.
Detroit's defense isn't nearly as good, though. Detroit's xGA/60 of 3.18 might not sound too different than Philadelphia's, but that puts the Red Wings all the way down to 21st in the league. The difference is more pronounced when you look at the raw goals against per game with Philadelphia's 2.85 looking far better than the Red Wings' 3.32 (tied for 23rd overall).
Former Flyers goaltender Alex Lyon is expected to get the start against his old team. He's had the most success of any Red Wings netminder with an 11-6-1 record, 2.67 GAA and .919 save percentage across 18 starts. However, Lyon is coming off a rough game against Dallas in which he stopped 27 of 32 shots over two periods before being replaced by James Reimer. Lyon has also struggled against his old team, posting a 4.31 GAA and .846 save percentage in two career games (both losses) against the Flyers.
Flyers vs. Red Wings
Betting Pick & Prediction
Oddsmakers are treating the Red Wings as mild favorites, perhaps because the game is being played in Detroit. But the Flyers are an incredibly dominant road team to the point where the game's location might even favor Philadelphia more than Detroit. In part because of that, I'd give the Flyers a slight edge overall. And with that in mind, it makes more sense to chase the bigger payout by selecting Philadelphia on the moneyline.
Pick: Philadelphia Flyers Moneyline (+114 via FanDuel; Play to +105)
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