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Flyers vs. Senators Odds, Prediction | NHL Betting Preview (November 5)

Flyers vs. Senators Odds, Prediction | NHL Betting Preview (November 5) article feature image
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Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ottawa Senators leftwing Tim Stutzle (18) is congratulated by teammates after scoring

  • The Senators host the Flyers as they look to snap a four-game losing streak.
  • Despite the rough stretch, our analyst feels there's value on backing Ottawa at home.
  • Nicholas Martin explains why and shares his best bet below.

Flyers vs. Senators Odds

Flyers Odds +150
Senators Odds -185
Over/Under 6.5 (-115/-105)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV NBCS-PH
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Ottawa will look to snap it’s four-game losing streak on Saturday night as it hosts John Tortorella and the Philadelphia Flyers.

Philadelphia has overachieved expectations in the early going this season, and has played a hard-nosed style of hockey en route to a 5-3-2 record.

Conversely, Ottawa has underachieved and is in desperate need of a win as it sits dead last in the highly competitive Atlantic Division.

Even with a significantly worse record, Ottawa is priced as a fairly heavy favorite at -185. Is that number warranted?

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Philadelphia Flyers

It certainly hasn’t come in a pretty fashion, but the Flyers holding a 5-3-2 record is certainly a significant overachievement over what most would have expected.

As Tortorella said, the Flyers aren’t going to control more of the play on most nights this season and he couldn’t care less about how the team’s analytics look.

Well, it’s probably a good thing Tortorella couldn’t care less because analytically, his team has been horrific. Carter Hart’s spectacular play appears to be the main reason for the strong early record.

There is certainly an art to not allowing the kind of complete defensive breakdowns that end up as tap-in goals, but rarely possessing the puck certainly is taking its toll.

The Flyers have allowed 36.45 shots per 60, which is the third-worst mark in the league. They’ve also allowed the third highest xGA/60 at 3.94.

At the other end, Philadelphia has generated just 1.94 xGF/60, the second-worst mark in the league.

The Flyers expected goals for mark of 36.6% is second worst in the league as Arizona is the only other team below 40%.

Hart has been unbelievable in goal for the Flyers with a +12.6 goals saved above expected rating and will start Saturday after resting Wednesday versus Toronto.


Ottawa Senators

After losing Josh Norris to injury in a quality 4-2 home win over Dallas on October 24th, the Senators outlook certainly changed, though following up that news with an extremely tough four-game stretch didn’t help.

Even without Norris, the Senators have a wealth of offensive talent, and it was clear Tim Stutzle played better Thursday after speaking out about his poor play in the loss in Tampa.

Some defensive miscues have been evident over this four-game slump, but the Senators have still played to a strong xGF% of 51.48. That mark is especially impressive considering the team’s schedule thus far.

It’s logical to expect Ottawa to carry a ton of the play in this spot and if it can finish off chances against Hart, the Senators should break through with a win.

Cam Talbot has been confirmed to get his first start of the season in this contest. He stopped 13-of-13 shots in relief of Anton Forsberg on Thursday against Vegas.

Flyers vs. Senators Pick

This is a great matchup for Ottawa to snap it’s four-game skid. If the Senators can build off the final two periods of the Vegas game, it should certainly lead to a better result opposite a Flyers team that has played worse than its record suggests.

My expectation is that the Senators are going to come out with a ton of energy and claim two points in this game. This contest appears to be a perfect buy-low, sell-high spot.

At -115, I believe we have a good number to back the Senators to win in regulation and I would play that number down to -120.

It’s also logical to expect Ottawa to generate 35+ shots in this contest and looking at Carter Hart’s save prop once that line goes up could hold some strong value as well.

Pick: Ottawa Senators 3-Way Win (Regulation) -115 (Play to -120)

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