Golden Knights vs Blue Jackets Odds: NHL Preview, Prediction
William Karlsson #71 of the Vegas Golden Knights skates against the Boston Bruins during the third period at TD Garden. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets Odds
| Golden Knights Odds | -194 |
| Blue Jackets Odds | +160 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100 / -120 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Vegas Golden Knights vs. Columbus Blue Jackets on Monday, March 4 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
After an 11-0-1 start to the season, the defending champion Knights have come crashing down to earth. After Saturday's 7-2 loss in Buffalo, they are now three games below .500 over a sample dating back more than a third of a season, with a record of 12-15-2. They have also struggled to a mark of only 14-12-5 away from home.
They could potentially receive a massive boost to the lineup tonight though, as Jack Eichel is a game-time decision.
The Blue Jackets are 4-6-0 over their past 10, and have played to a record of only 10-16-4 on home ice.
In this article, we’ll break down the relevant game notes ahead of this exciting matchup and I'll outline my best bets for Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets.
It's pretty rare that we see the goalie of a +165 underdog set with a lower save prop total than the opponent's starter. That is the case in this matchup though, as Adin Hill is set at 28.5, while Daniil Tarasov is set at 27.5. Those totals can be viewed as an interesting comment toward the depleted Knights current form. Columbus will likely own 50% of the play in this game, but Hill is a huge upgrade in goal compared to Tarasov, who has been notably bad.
In 11 games since the All-Star break the Knights have played to an expected goal share of only 47.13%. They have been outshot by three per every 60 minutes of play during that span. Their actual results aren't much better, as they own a record of just 4-6-1, and a -5 goal differential.
Even if Eichel does remain out of the lineup tonight, their lineup will be slightly more complete than it has been as Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore will both be in the mix on the back-end.
With Eichel and Stone out of the lineup, Knights coach Bruce Cassidy has been highly reliant on two of the Knights original misfits in William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault. Both have averaged close to 20 minutes over the past four games, and should see big usage tonight if this game remains close.
Hill has been confirmed as the Knights starting goaltender and has played to 15.4 GSAx with a .923 save percentage across 25 appearances.
Coach Pascal Vincent has finally found some consistency toward his top-nine up front, and it has been reflected with an improved control of the overall play. Over the past 10 games the Blue Jackets own a 52.16% expected goal rating, and have generated 32.81 shots for per 60.
Johnny Gaudreau has found slightly better form with Boone Jenner back in the mix on the top line, with Jack Roslovic on the right side.
It has been the Blue Jackets second line of Yegor Chinakhov, Dmitri Voronkov and Kirill Marchenko that continues to open eyes though. The trio of young Russian stars has displayed excellent chemistry recently, and looked excellent again in Saturday's win over the Blackhawks.
Having top defender Zach Werenski back in the lineup has also boosted the upside of the back end. He has looked true to form since returning on February 10 and has put up eight points.
Daniil Tarasov has struggled badly this season in goal and the Knights have a huge edge with Hill in goal Monday. Tarasov has played to a -9.8 GSAx and an .888 save percentage across 14 appearances.
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Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Knights play has fallen off of a cliff over what has become a relatively large sample and, as a result, I lean toward the Blue Jackets here. Since Tarasov will start instead of Elvis Merzlikins, I will pass on backing Columbus at the current price of +164.
The Blue Jackets should own their share of play in what could quietly be a pretty high-event matchup. Their trio of young Russians has been in tremendous form, and should actually get some very winnable matchups. Kirill Marchenko is priced at +114 to record Over 2.5 shots on goal. I view that as a good way to tap in to that lines strong recent chance generation, and would bet it down to +105.
The Knights have been highly reliant on Karlsson and Marchessault over the past several games, and that should continue tonight. Even if Eichel returns, Karlsson should still see big minutes due a lack of depth at wing. He is averaging 5.6 shot attempts per game without Stone in the lineup, and I don't believe a price of -110 to record over 2.5 shots on goal is enough of an adjustment.
Pick: William Karlsson Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -110 (FanDuel, Play to -120), Kirill Marchenko Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +114 (DraftKings, Play to +105)
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