NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Hurricanes vs Stars (Tuesday, February 13)
Claus Andersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Roope Hintz #24 of the Dallas Stars.
Hurricanes vs. Stars Odds
| Hurricanes Odds | +105 |
| Stars Odds | -125 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -105 / -115 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Carolina Hurricanes vs. Dallas Stars on Tuesday, February 13 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
It's unwise to tempt the universe, but Tuesday's battle between the Carolina Hurricanes and Dallas Stars could be foreshadowing the Stanley Cup Finals. Both teams are built for playoff success, and that's reflected in both of their futures prices. The Canes are priced at an attractive +1000, with Dallas coming in just beneath that at +900.
The more pertinent perspective is that the Hurricanes enter this inter-conference showdown as modest +105 underdogs against the Central Division-leading Stars. That distinction comes despite Carolina winning two straight and going 13-3-1 since Dec. 27.
That's because Canes are taking on a Stars team that remains one of the best teams in the league. Dallas has been on a similar run of late, compiling a 7-2-1 record over its past 10.
All signs point toward a tight-checking game as two Stanley Cup hopefuls clash in the Lone Star State.
Let's get to our Hurricanes vs. Stars prediction and pick.
Rod Brind'Amour continues to extract maximum value from his roster. For the seventh straight season, the Canes are sitting top six in expected goals-for rating, currently ranking third in the NHL. Not surprisingly, we've seen the best the team has to offer during their extended hot streak, with Carolina amplifying its efforts over the past few weeks.
Since Dec. 27, the Hurricanes are skating around with a tidy 55.8% expected goals-for rating, but that benchmark has ratcheted even higher more recently. Over their last four, Carolina's expected goals-for rating has exploded to 64.3%, with the Canes outplaying their opponents in every game.
As per usual, their success is predicated on onerous defensive responsibility. On the season, the Hurricanes rank tops in scoring chances allowed, falling slightly to third in high-danger chances given up. Still, that standard has been improved over Carolina's recent schedule. Their last four opponents were held to a combined 19 high-danger and 51 scoring opportunities, with no team exceeding six or 14, respectively.
What's most impressive is that those efforts have come against some of the best teams the NHL has to offer. The New Jersey Devils, Colorado Avalanche, and Vancouver Canucks were all stymied, falling victim to the Hurricanes' unforgiving defensive structure.
If there's one team that can match Carolina's defensive intensity, it's the Dallas Stars. The Central Division leaders rank just below the Canes in high-danger and scoring chances allowed. But like their counterparts, the Stars have tightened the reigns over their past few games. Those efforts are contributing to a boost in the Stars' analytics profile and will be crucial to limiting their opponents on Tuesday.
In 52 games, the Stars have allowed 402 quality opportunities against, or 7.73 per game, just a shade above the Hurricanes benchmark of 7.69. But like their guests, Dallas has tidied up its defensive zone play more recently. The Stars' last six opponents are averaging 6.5 high-danger opportunities per game, with all but two of those teams being held below six. Likewise, scoring chances have been in short supply, with opponents averaging 19.7 over the same six-game sample.
Where Dallas deviates from the similarities is with its improved offensive profile. The Stars have been a superior team in the attacking zone, and that's objectively reflected in the underlying analytics. They've hit double-digit high-danger chances in four of six, out-chancing their opponents in all but one of those contests. As expected, that's precipitated an improved expected goals-for rating, with the Stars asserting themselves with a 62.4% benchmark over that stretch.
(NHL bettors: Check out the latest news on the launch of North Carolina sports betting online!)
Hurricanes vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
There will be few scoring opportunities to go around when the Stars and Hurricanes collide at American Airlines Center. Both teams play an unrelenting brand of defense, preventing their opponents from gaining any offensive traction.
Still, bettors can use that to their advantage on Tuesday. We see several inroads into the betting market with this contest. First, we're expecting a low-scoring affair. Getting the under 6.5 at a pick'em or better is a play worth making.
Second, this game has all the makings of an overtime contest. Goals will be in short supply and neither team concedes chances against. FanDuel is hanging a 60-minute prop at +350, which I would bet down to +325.
Lastly, the Stars have two advantages worth considering. They have the benefit of last change at home, and have a better offense. With that in mind, we're backing the Stars on the moneyline, expecting them to prevail in overtime or a shootout. Anything better than -140 is worth playing.
Pick: Under 6.5 -110 (BetMGM), 60-Minute Tie +350 (FanDuel), Stars moneyline -125 (Bet365)
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