NHL Betting Odds, Picks: Jets vs. Flames (November 12)
Jonathan Kozub/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck
- The Winnipeg Jets visit the Calgary Flames in a late game on Saturday night.
- These two teams are headed in opposite directions, but the pregame odds suggest a different story.
- Nicholas Martin offers insight into those odds and shares a few bets below.
Jets vs. Flames Odds
|Over/Under||6.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
Can Winnipeg Jets Keep Firing?
At 8-3-1 Winnipeg can clearly be pointed to as a side that has greatly overachieved its preseason expectations. So the question quickly becomes: Will we see this team able to continue producing such results over a larger sample?
New Coach Rick Bowness has clearly made a difference with the overall play this year from what we saw last season, as the Jets have looked better defensively and own a 49.22 xGF% in turn.
The greatest cause of the Jets’ success has still simply been having the second-hottest goaltender in the league.
Which is perfectly fine – and the Jets do not need to say any apologies for rostering one of the league’s best – but even for Connor Hellebuyck, such a ridiculous level of dominance likely is not sustainable over a larger sample size.
Hellebuyck owns a +11.3 goals saved above expected mark and has stopped .938% of shots faced in 10 appearances, and he should likely make the start tonight.
The Jets do still hold a +10 goal differential, however, and a playoff berth out of what now appears to be a soft Central division seems very reasonable. But this level of early dominance is certainly something I expect to level off in time considering the roster on hand.
Silver Lining to Rough Stretch for Calgary Flames
Even with some meaningful bodies out of their lineup, few would have expected the Flames to fall into such a stunning seven-game losing skid after its hot start to the season.
Therefore, it’s not surprising to see that Calgary’s skid has come with some very poor luck, and the Flames have played to a 54.39% expected goals rate.
The skid has also come against a notably tough schedule, including three matchups with Boston and New Jersey, who have dominated the entire league all season long.
Coach Darryl Sutter is never one to sugarcoat a situation, and it was very telling to hear him say after Calgary’s tough loss to Boston that he thought his side played very well throughout its 0-3 road trip, and that not finishing its grade-A opportunities was the key problem.
That was a completely accurate assessment, and similar gameplay versus weaker competition – or even with high-quality chances being finished – is going to end in favorable results more often than not.
New Jersey, New York and Boston own excellent records at home, and playing three games in four nights versus the trio would likely find a ton of teams looking bad.
The Flames outshot them by a combined margin of 99-55, and they definitely deserved the Islanders and Devils games in particular.
Jonathan Huberdeau is listed as day-to-day, and it is unclear if he will play in tonight’s contest. Same goes for defender Chris Tanev.
Jacob Markstrom will likely get the start in this spot. Markstrom has followed up his strong campaign from a year ago with a +2.0 goals saved above expected rating and .893 save % in 10 appearances.
Jets vs. Flames Pick
This is a perfect buy-low, sell-high spot as the Jets’ record is far better than its underlying stats suggest. Meanwhile, Calgary’s 0-3 road trip was criminally unlucky.
I had originally thought this was going to be a smash spot in turn, with my hopes being oddsmakers would vastly overvalue the Jets and underrate Calgary.
Unfortunately, oddsmakers were wise to the ways that these sides arrived at these records, and they set odds that would probably surprise some with the Flames now priced at -150.
Even still, at +100 for Calgary to record a regulation win, we are getting a very reasonable price considering my confidence the Flames bounce back here. It may not be the greatest number one would have hoped for, but it seems that – oddsmakers included – everybody understands this is the spot the Flames end the skid.
Calgary generated a wealth of scoring chances against far sharper defensive sides than the Jets over the last three contests, and eventually that is going to pay off with more offense.
In all likelihood, Calgary is going to control far more of the play tonight and manage a shot output close to the high totals seen of late, and that will give Hellebuyck every chance to cash the over on his save prop again.
Pick: Calgary Flames 3-Way Moneyline +100 (Play to -110) | Connor Hellebuyck Saves to 32.5