Kings vs Blackhawks Odds: NHL Preview, Prediction
Gary A. Vasquez/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Fiala
- The Blackhawks host the Kings at 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday night.
- The Kings are favored, but Hockey expert Nicholas Martin isn't focused on a side or total. Instead, he's targeting a player prop for tonight's NHL pick.
Kings vs. Blackhawks Odds
| Kings Odds | -280 |
| Blackhawks Odds | +230 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -120 / +100 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Los Angeles Kings vs. Chicago Blackhawks on Friday, March 15 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Kings will look to bounce back after a disappointing 3-1 loss in St. Louis Wednesday. They poured 41 shots on net in that matchup, but were unable to convert on far too many quality looks. That has been a common game script for Los Angeles, but it will hope a matchup versus Arvid Soderblom (.881 save %, 3.88 GAA) is the remedy.
Here's my Kings vs. Blackhawks preview and prediction.
Evaluating if the Kings are a contender or not comes down whether or not you believe their offense is due for positive regression.
They have been one of the league's best defensive teams for a third-straight season. Over the last 15 games, their 2.97 xGA/60 is the ninth-best mark in the league, and should continue to trend upward with Mikey Anderson back in the lineup. Viktor Arvidsson is nearing a return as well, which would also boost the Kings' upside at both ends of the ice.
Since the start of 2024 the Kings have produced offense at a bottom quarter rate, but their shooting percentage does suggest positive regression is on the horizon. Even under new coach Jim Hiller, the Kings shooting percentage sat at just 8.62.
A visual observation of their play would tell you that the Kings do lean towards borderline shots more than an average side. They do not often force plays through seams, which are the plays that tend to be under-quantified in public expected goals data. Another important note is that when you try a dangerous pass that is broken up, it counts for nothing in these numbers.
Kevin Fiala is the Kings' most dynamic skater, and he continues to display excellent form under Hiller. He, Phillip Danault and Trevor Moore combine to make up one of the better second lines in the league. They have played to a 59.8% expected goal rating this season, and 3.28 xGoals per 60.
Cam Talbot is likely to get the start in this contest. He has played to a +7.7 GSAx and .916 save % across 42 appearances. It is worth noting, though, that backup David Rittich has not offered lesser play this season.
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Connor Bedard is in the midst of the best stretch of his young career, as he has posted 10 points over the last four games. The Blackhawks have even won three of those matchups, and suddenly they have moved out of 32nd place. Wins might not be something most Hawks fans want to see, though, so they will hope amid a tougher schedule the team starts to collect losses again.
Two of those wins came over Arizona, and the other over an extremely depleted Anaheim Ducks roster. Over the last 10 games, Chicago owns an excellent 54.73% expected goal rating, but it is important to note that data is skewed by dominant wins over soft opponents.
The Hawks will be starting the softer of their two goaltending options Friday, as Arvid Soderblom has been confirmed as the starter. He has played to a -14.4 GSAx rating and .879 save % across 25 appearances this season.
Kings vs. Blackhawks
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Kings should be able to own much of the play in this matchup, and I believe the Blackhawks' recent play will still prove to be somewhat of an anomaly. With Soderblom in goal for the Blackhawks, there is a good chance the Kings convert more of those quality looks than usual. Still, the betting numbers on sides look accurate to me given Chicago's improved form.
The Kings' second line of Moore, Fiala and Danault has been dominating recently and will be in a great spot to produce tonight. They should spend the majority of their time on ice in extremely soft matchups.
You could consider a number of different props involving L.A.s second even strength trio, but my favorite is backing Fiala to record over 3.5 shots at +128 (FanDuel). He's put up 36 shot attempts over the last three games, and we should see that mark continue given the way his line continues to own the play.
Pick: Kevin Fiala Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+128 at FanDuel) | Play to +120
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