NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Maple Leafs vs. Wild (Sunday, November 19)
Claus Andersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Auston Matthews #34 and Ilya Samsonov #35 of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Maple Leafs vs. Wild Odds
The NHL's Global Series will conclude with a matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Minnesota Wild early on Sunday morning (8 a.m. ET) in Sweden, and the latest Maple Leafs vs. Wild odds see Minnesota as a short favorite in this matchup.
The Leafs lucked out with their Global Series schedule as they catch b0th of their opponents on the second night of a back-to-back.
William Nylander sent the Swedish crowd home happy in their first matchup when his three-point night powered the Leafs' 3-2 comeback over Detroit.
Minnesota suffered a tough shootout loss to Ottawa on Saturday, and the team is now five points back of Anaheim for the final playoff spot. It has allowed 4.00 goals against per game, and Minnesota will get a tough test from a potent Leafs offense.
Let's preview Maple Leafs vs. Wild and make a prediction for Sunday, November 19.
The Leafs' win over Detroit could be viewed as a summary of their season in a nutshell. Their superstars have done their thing and then some, as they did in that matchup, but there are some clear flaws among the rest of the roster. Still, for all of the noise and negativity surrounding the team, Toronto is 9-5-2 and owns a top-10 points percentage.
Toronto's blue line has taken a step backward from where it has been the last several seasons. Their bottom two forward lines have also struggled, and suddenly the Leafs have become a below-average team in terms of xGA/60 with a mark of 3.31.
Those concerns are temporarily looking a little better though. John Klingberg's injury is the definition of addition by subtraction. He was arguably the worst top four defensive player in the league. Having him out of the lineup should continue to help the Leafs.
As Ryan Reaves is now getting healthy scratched, Toronto's fourth line also should continue to put forth more respectable results.
The addition of top prospect Nick Robertson to the third line has also brought on a more positive dynamic. He, Max Domi, and Calle Jarnkrok could prove to be a productive third unit in time.
By some margin Joseph Woll has been the better of Toronto's two netminders, and we should see him get the start Sunday. He owns a +2.9 GSAx and .909 save % in nine appearances this season.
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Minnesota has offered some of the same concerns as Toronto this season, only they do not hold the same kind of superstars to score their way out of trouble.
The Wild's 3.42 xGA/60 is the 13th-highest mark in the league. Shaky goaltending has helped exacerbate their poor defensive play, and suddenly they are allowing the second-most goals in the league.
With Captain Jared Spurgeon back in the lineup as well as excellent two-way forward in Matt Boldy, we should see the Wild's defensive play stabilize and find some improvement in time.
The greater concern moving forward will be if neither goaltending option finds better form. Filip Gustavsson has had an awful start to the season after an incredible 2022-23 campaign, but he did perform well Saturday in front of his home country crowd. Seeing as Gustavsson got the start Saturday, we should see Marc-Andre Fleury get the nod in this matchup.
Fleury has struggled to a -5.9 GSAx and .879 save % in eight appearances this season.
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Maple Leafs vs. Wild
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Leafs have shown some meaningful flaws in their game this season, but it is still fair to say the totality of what they have shown means they deserve to be power-rated well above Minnesota.
They get the scheduling advantage here, and they should have the best possible goaltending matchup with Woll versus Fleury.
This opening price is too close, and anything better than -155 is a play for me on the Leafs. With a relatively high degree of confidence, I believe the Leafs' price will worsen overnight, so look to get on Toronto now if possible. If you are looking to attack the Wild, waiting until game-time should offer the best chance.
This could be an enticing spot to bet the Leafs if they go down early like we saw versus Detroit. Once Keefe shortened the bench to essentially only his top two lines, Toronto completely took over the game. It likely also hurt that Detroit was in leg two of a back-to-back, which also applies here.
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