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Oilers vs. Ducks | NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction

Oilers vs. Ducks | NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction article feature image

Debora Robinson/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Anaheim Ducks

  • Tonight, the Anaheim Ducks and Edmonton Oilers clash for the second time in four days.
  • Anaheim doesn't have much to play for, but the Ducks are finding their stride.
  • Below, Grant White explains how Anaheim could capitalize against a tired Oilers squad.

Oilers vs. Ducks Odds

Oilers Odds-365
Ducks Odds+285
Over/Under6.5 (-160 / +130)
Time10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

For the second time since Saturday, Pacific Division rivals the Anaheim Ducks and Edmonton Oilers will battle for two points.

The Oilers handily defeated the Ducks at home, claiming a 6-0 victory. Now, the Oilers will have to replicate that effort on the road as they travel to SoCal looking for their fifth straight win.

More importantly, Edmonton needs the points to keep pace atop the division standings.

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Edmonton Oilers Due for Come-down?

Edmonton has emerged as an analytics juggernaut this season, and that’s been amplified over its recent stretch. So far this year, the Oilers have accumulated the seventh-best expected goals-for percentage, sitting between top contenders in the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs.

The team’s success has been more pronounced since March 11, with the Pacific Division contenders recording four or more goals in all but three of their contests. However, that prosperity is contraindicated in their metrics, putting Edmonton at risk of regression down the stretch.

Connor McDavid and company are scoring on 13.5% of shots over their last 12 games, above their NHL-leading mark of 11.8%. Consequently, their PDO across all strengths is elevated to an unsustainable level, breaching 1.041 over that stretch.

The Oilers have been operating above expected levels for nearly a month and could be due for a correction phase as metrics work back down toward normal ranges.

That anticipated regression could be facilitated by playing a condensed schedule. Edmonton is skating on back-to-back nights, competing for the sixth time in nine nights. More concerningly, only two of those matchups have happened on home ice, sandwiched between a pair of multi-game road trips.

Anaheim Ducks as Spoilers

The Ducks season mercifully comes to an end in a couple of weeks, but not before the basement dwellers could throw a wrench in the Western Conference playoff picture. Three of their next five contests come against postseason-bound squads, with all but one coming in their friendly confines. That gives Anaheim the best chance of ending its campaign on a high note.

The Ducks’ offense is trending positively to end the season. Anaheim has attempted 10 or more high-danger opportunities in two of their last four while going above their scoring chance average in three of six.

Although it hasn’t yielded the output we’d expect, it sets the Ducks up for success over the coming games as production balances with output.

Additionally, and not surprisingly, the Ducks’ defensive analytics are much-improved on home ice. Anaheim has held nine of its last 11 opponents to below-average quality opportunities at the Honda Center. Further, their average is 11.2 across that sample, down from their season-long average of 13.1.

Getting the proper line matchups will be crucial to containing a tired Oilers team.

Oilers vs. Ducks Pick

The Ducks have the added advantage of hosting Edmonton on the second night of a back-to-back. The Oilers are coming off a massive win against a team they were chasing in the standings, despite attempting a paltry four high-danger chances. That downward trend should be sustained after an extended overachieving phase for the Oil.

Conversely, Anaheim has amplified its production recently, and scoring should increase to match the effort. Coupled with improved defensive effort at home, Anaheim could be more than the Oilers are ready to handle.

It may not help the Ducks win outright, but they should at least be able to keep things close.

We’re backing the Ducks on the puckline at plus money.

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