Oilers vs Kings Pick, Odds: Game 4 Prediction (Sunday, April 23)

Oilers vs. Kings Game 4 Odds

The Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings first-round series went seven games last year, but the 2023 rematch has been even closer as two of the first three contests have gone to overtime. The Kings claimed both those overtime meetings, which presents them an opportunity to take a commanding 3-1 lead if they can win Game 4 at home.

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Edmonton Oilers

If Edmonton wants to even the series, it'll have to solve goaltender Joonas Korpisalo, especially in 5-on-5 situations. The Oilers have managed 116 shots over three games, including 98 in 5-on-5 play. Thanks to their efforts, they have an expected goals for of 8.63 in that situation, per Moneypuck, but the reality is they have just four actual 5-on-5 goals. With four even-strength goals over three games, it's not surprising the Oilers are trailing in this series.

Edmonton simply isn't built to win a goaltending duel. Jack Campbell struggled during the regular season with a 3.41 GAA and an .888 save percentage in 36 contests, so the Oilers have been relying on rookie Stuart Skinner. The young netminder has been meh in the first round, posting a 2.80 GAA and a .900 save percentage through three outings.

Additionally, Edmonton has some forwards that need to get going. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman had 37 and 36 goals, respectively, in the regular season, but neither has found the back of the net in the first round.

Evander Kane has fared okay with a goal and an assist through three playoff appearances, but there's room for improvement there, especially when contrasted against the 2022 Kings-Oilers series, during which he scored seven goals and tallied nine points.

Those are the three complimentary pieces that elevate the Oilers from being the Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl show into a complete team. As it is, McDavid and Draisaitl have combined to provide 55.6% of Edmonton's playoff goals, up from 35.7% during the regular season.

Los Angeles Kings

Korpisalo deserves a fair amount of credit for the Kings' initial success. Los Angeles acquired him from Columbus on March 1 with an eye toward making him the starting goaltender and that's paid off beautifully.

He hasn't been carrying the Kings alone though. At the age of 35 and with two Stanley Cup championships on his resume, Anze Kopitar has been one of Los Angeles' standout players, supplying a goal and five points through three games. It's nice to see a holdover from the Kings' previous era still playing at a high level and it wouldn't be surprising if he continued to frustrate the Oilers for the remainder of this series.

The Kings are also getting help from some of their younger players, including 26-year-old Adrian Kempe. He has three goals and four points in the first round after setting career highs during the regular season with 41 goals and 67 points.

What makes the Kings' success even more impressive is that they aren't yet 100%. Kevin Fiala played a huge role in getting them to the playoffs (23 goals and 72 points in 69 games), but he hasn't played since April 1 due to a lower-body injury. Fiala skated during Saturday's practice, so he's making progress and even if he doesn't end up playing in Game 4, there's a chance he'll return at some point during the series.

That's just another point of pressure for Edmonton. If the Oilers don't find a way to beat the Kings now, they might have to do so later, when Los Angeles is even stronger.

Oilers vs. Kings Pick

Even with the game in Los Angeles and the Kings leading the series, Edmonton is still favored on the moneyline, which is fair. The Oilers are a superb team and should be capable of responding after dropping Game 3, just as they did after losing Game 1.

If you want to take Edmonton on the puck line, I think you would be making a solid choice. I'm going to recommend something bolder though: Zach Hyman as an Anytime Goal Scorer. He had 36 goals during the regular season and although he hasn't scored yet in the playoffs, he's had 12 shots over the first three games. Hyman's due.

Pick: Zach Hyman Anytime Goal (+185 | Play to +175)

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