Penguins vs. Wild Odds & Prediction | NHL Betting Preview (November 17)
Norm Hall/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Tristan Jarry
- The Minnesota Wild and Pittsburgh Penguins (-110 moneyline) will face off on Thursday night as each team looks to get back in the win column.
- While both teams will be looking to snap losing streaks, our expert is more focused on the over/under at 6.5.
- Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Penguins vs. Wild Odds
|Over/Under||6.5 (-114 / -108)|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
We have a good matchup on Thursday evening with the Central Division’s Minnesota Wild hosting the Metropolitan Division’s Pittsburgh Penguins. Both teams enter this contest on two-game losing streaks, looking to turn things around.
Will the Wild take care of business on home ice, or can the Penguins grab a much-needed victory on the road?
Goaltender Tristan Jarry is projected to take the crease for the Pittsburgh Penguins. It has been a difficult start to the campaign for the Penguins’ netminder, who is 4-3-2 with a .900 SV% and 3.56 GAA.
However, now should be the time to buy low on Jarry. An excellent goaltender last season, he went 34-18-6 with a .919 SV% and 2.24 GAA.
Trust the larger sample size with a guy who has posted north of a .907 SV% in four seasons as an NHL goaltender, excluding the two seasons where he played two or fewer games.
Playing in front of Jarry is a defense that ranks in the top half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5v5. While Pittsburgh also boasts a strong offense, Minnesota should be able to slow down the Penguins.
The Minnesota Wild have been involved in plenty of low-scoring contests recently as there have been six or fewer goals scored in 10 of their past 11 games. This stretch of low-scoring affairs should continue in this matchup as goaltender Filip Gustavsson is slated to start between the pipes for Minnesota following the news that Marc-Andre Fleury will be out for at least a week with an upper-body injury.
Gustavsson has been more than serviceable in the backup role this year as he boasts a .914 SV% and 2.82 GAA through five appearances in the crease. Playing in front of Gustavsson is a defense primed for positive regression.
At 5v5 this season, the Wild rank 20th in the league in GA/60, but seventh in xGA/60. These strong underlying metrics shouldn’t be a surprise considering the Wild finished last season ranked second in the league in xGA/60 at 5v5.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s offense has been stagnant throughout the campaign. Outside of Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, the offense has no spark, which appears to be a product of the departure of winger Kevin Fiala.
With their former playmaking winger now in Los Angeles, the Wild have struggled mightily to produce a productive offense. They rank just 26th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5v5.
Penguins vs. Wild Pick
More than anything else, this play is a fade of Minnesota’s offense. The Wild come out flat every night and have scored more than two goals just once over their past six games.
To their credit, Minnesota’s defense and goaltending have done a decent job of keeping the Wild competitive. On the flip side, this matchup should be a good opportunity to buy low on Jarry, who has historically been stronger than what he has shown this season.
I made this total at six and books likely have it at 6.5 due to Pittsburgh’s strong offense. While that is a valid counter-argument for taking the over, the pace of this game shouldn’t allow there to be seven goals scored.
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