NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Stars vs Rangers (Tuesday, February 20)
(Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) Pictured: Scott Wedgewood
Stars vs. Rangers Odds
| Stars Odds | +120 |
| Rangers Odds | -140 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100o / -120u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Dallas Stars vs. New York Rangers on Tuesday, February 20 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
On Tuesday, the Dallas Stars head to Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Rangers for the second and final time this season. Dallas is fresh off a disappointing shootout loss to the Boston Bruins on Monday. Meanwhile, the Rangers enter with a ton of momentum following their exhilarating 6-5 comeback victory over the New York Islanders in the NHL Stadium Series.
When these teams first met in November, the Stars came away with a 6-3 victory in what was a back-and-forth battle. Round two of this potential Stanley Cup preview should be just as exciting.
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make a Stars vs. Rangers prediction.
The Stars continue to cruise and have quietly emerged as a fearsome Stanley Cup contender. With 76 points through 56 games, they sit second in the Western Conference and first in the Central Division. Since opening the new year with a three-game skid, Dallas has been red-hot with a 12-3-3 record. Over the past 10 games, the Stars are an impressive 7-1-2.
While Dallas’ 3.73 goals per game ranks No. 1 in the NHL, its biggest strength is actually its defense. The Stars’ 2.27 xGA/60 at 5-on-5 is the league’s fourth-best mark. Over their past 10 games, they rank first in xGF% and third in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
Offensively, Dallas has been the beneficiary of some fortunate puck luck, scoring 18.26 goals above expected. However, that number doesn't diminish the Stars' offensive capabilities. Dallas owns the NHL's seventh-best xGF/60 at 5-on-5. With a 54.27 xGF% at 5-on-5 on the season, the Stars consistently control play and out-chance their opponents.
Since this game marks the second of a back-to-back, backup goaltender Scott Wedgewood should get the nod for Dallas. Wedgewood represents a major downgrade from starter Jake Oettinger, as his -9.2 GSAx ranks eighth-worst among goalies.
As a team, the Stars have trended toward higher-scoring games in the second leg of back-to-backs. They are 4-1-2 in such games, and the over is 5-2 in those games.
On Tuesday, they will likely also be without three of their top defensemen: Miro Heiskanen, Jani Hakanpaa and Nils Lundkvist. Matt Duchene's status is also worth monitoring after he missed Monday's game.
After clawing back from a two-goal third-period deficit at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, the Rangers' winning streak has reached a season-high seven games. They are tied for the league lead with 18 comeback victories and haven't lost since before the NHL All-Star break. New York might be the league's hottest team right now, but it hasn't typically been pretty.
Rarely do the Rangers dominate for a full 60 minutes, and the underlying numbers reflect that. Their 49.95 xGF% at 5-on-5 this season ranks 18th, indicating they don't typically overwhelm opponents. Rather, what makes the Blueshirts such a dangerous squad is their knack for winning in so many different ways.
Some nights, like last Monday against the Calgary Flames, it's Igor Shesterkin stopping over three goals above expected. Others, like Saturday, it's New York's slumping power play coming to life with three power-play goals. The formula varies from night to night, making the Rangers a bit unpredictable for both bettors and opponents. Somehow, though, they continue to rack up points and pace the Metropolitan Division.
The good news for New York is that its potent top line of Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck and Alexis Lafreniere is finally starting to get some scoring help. Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have begun to heat up, with three and five goals respectively over the past four games. And on the third line, Jonny Brodzinski has points in four of the past five games, Will Cuylle has points in three of the past four and Kaapo Kakko has a four-game point streak.
The key going forward will be for Shesterkin, a former Vezina Trophy winner, to find some consistency. Since the All-Star break, he is 3-0-0 with eight total goals against.
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Stars vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
To me, this is a prime letdown spot for the Rangers. Coming off the high of the NHL Stadium Series, I expect there to be a bit of a hangover. With a -5 first-period goal differential, New York typically starts slow, and against Dallas, the Blueshirts won't be able to claw their way back as easily if they fall behind.
It's worth noting that when the Stars took down the Rangers in November, New York was similarly hot and entered with an 11-game point streak. Wedgewood was in goal for Dallas that night too.
Despite some injury concerns, I'm taking Dallas, the better all-around team, at plus money while I can. The Stars looked excellent against the Bruins on Monday and will be hungry for two points after blowing that game late. I'm expecting a similar script to the last battle between New York and Dallas, so I'll play the over at plus money as well.
Picks: Dallas Stars Moneyline (+122 at Caesars, Play to +110) | Over 6.5 (+105 at PointsBet, Play to +100)
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