Wild vs Kings Prediction: NHL Odds, Preview (Wednesday, March 20)
Sam Hodde/Getty Images. Pictured: Kings forward Kevin Fiala.
Wild vs Kings Prediction, NHL Odds
| Wild Odds | +130 |
| Kings Odds | -155 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -115 / -105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Minnesota Wild vs. Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday, March 20 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
After a 4-0 victory last night in Anaheim, the Wild have gone 6-2-2 in their last 10 games. They now have a legitimate chance to steal a berth in what looked to be a lost season.
The Kings are one of the teams the Wild are chasing, so Wednesday night's matchup is somewhat of a four-point swing. Oddsmakers are counting on a playoff-style matchup, as they have set the over/under at just 5.5.
Let's take a look at the Wild vs Kings odds in our betting preview and then make a prediction in their game for Wednesday, March 20.
The Wild have done an excellent job of cleaning up points amid a soft scheduling patch.
They beat a Predators team playing in Game 2 of a road back-to-back, 4-3, in overtime on March 10, and that has been their only win over a playoff team since Feb. 24.
Their process throughout their recent sample of games has been impressive, though. Since Feb. 23, their 56.83% expected goal rating ranks third, and their 3.44 xGF/60 is the sixth-best mark in the league.
The question becomes, is this team going to be this much better when they face off against more playoff teams? Tonight will offer an important glimpse into that debate.
With Joel Eriksson Ek sidelined the Wild's offensive lineup certainly looks quite modest, but they're finding ways to generate despite his absence.
Marat Khusnutdinov has looked solid centering the third line, but the Wild's center depth is still a glaring weakness.
I noted at the time that the Jets were likely foolish to let Declan Chisholm go for free, and he has been an underrated addition to the Wild's blue line since debuting with Minnesota on Feb. 17.
Marc-Andre Fleury will get the start tonight. He has played to a -0.9 GSAx and .906 save % across 34 appearances this season.
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Similar to the Wild, the Kings have done well to clean up points against non-playoff sides recently.
They own a solid 6-3-1 record over the last 10, with an eye-popping +12 goal differential. That mark is boosted by big wins over teams like Chicago (twice), though, and it will be interesting to see if their improved offensive form continues tonight against a strong defensive side.
Pierre-Luc Dubois has put up four points over the last three games. If he can find form anywhere close to what the Kings thought they were acquiring last summer, it would offer a significant boost to what could be an offensive peaking at the right time.
Head coach Jim Hiller said Viktor Arvidsson was close to returning last night versus Chicago but ultimately did not play. It sounds quite possible he will be back in for tonight's game.
It will be interesting to see where Arvidsson slots in when he does return, as the Kings' current second unit of Trevor Moore, Phillip Danault and Kevin Fiala continues to be completely dominant. That trio has played to a team-leading 59.8% expected goal share and has been highly productive where it counts over the last month of action.
The Kings' top line seems fairly set in stone, so we could see Arvidsson slide in on the third unit alongside Dubois.
David Rittich will likely be the Kings' starter for this matchup, as Cam Talbot played last night versus Chicago. Rittich has had the best season of his career at age 31, having played to a +10.5 GSAx and .916 save percentage across 20 appearances.
Wild vs Kings
Betting Pick & Prediction
These are two low-event teams, and this matchup is going to have a playoff feel to it. A win here for the Wild would put them legitimately in the mix again. We're definitely getting a playoff total at 5.5, and when you're talking about two defense-first sides, that makes sense.
Still, I'm not sold on either Marc-Andre Fleury or Rittich right now, and I think the Wild are a weaker team defensively than their recent results suggest.
The way the Wild have defended recently allows us to Kevin Fiala over 3.5 shots at +150 when that number has been hovering around +120 in most matchups of late.
Minnesota has also played a much softer-than-average schedule, though, which is boosting its defensive results.
The Kings' second line is still going to have some very winnable matchups here and should continue owning much of the play. Fiala continues to look very dynamic, and I'll bet he shows out in this big spot against his former team.
There's value backing him to record over 3.5 shots at anything better than +145. I also believe there's some value in betting the game to go over 5.5 goals at -118.
I also lean toward Kings as a side and would jump in if a -145 happened to pop in the market.
Pick: Kevin Fiala Over 3.5 Shots on Goal +150 (Play to +145) · Over 5.5 (Play to -125)
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