NHL Props: Expert’s Best Bets for Valeri Nichushkin, Travis Konecny
Via Andreea Cardani/Getty Images. Pictured: Valeri Nichushkin #13 of the Colorado Avalanche skating during the game against the San Jose Sharks at SAP Center on Tuesday April 4, 2023 in San Jose, California.
- NHL analyst Nicholas Martin has a trio of prop bets ready for Sunday.
- He's buying low on a pair of Flyers, while also betting on Valeri Nichushkin of the Avalanche.
- Find his picks and analysis below.
There are only two NHL games on Sunday, but both are primetime matchups on TNT. Our NHL props analyst Nicholas Martin breaks down which player prop bets have the best value below.
NHL Player Props For Sunday, April 9
Owen Tippett Over 3.5 Shots On Goal +126
| Bruins vs. Flyers | Bruins -260 |
| Puck Drop | 6 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Over the last 15 games, the Bruins have been far more mortal in terms of shot suppression and are allowing 29.48 SA/60, the 10th-lowest rate in the league.
As Boston is in a back-to-back spot playing for absolutely nothing at all, it is logical to think some top stars could rest, although I have been wrong on this take before.
In that case, Owen Tippett will face some easier line matches than he would have otherwise, which would also drive up the value of this bet a touch.
My guess is Philly surprises and plays a more competitive contest at home Sunday than people might expect from a +225 underdog, and I believe Tippett will get involved and generate some chances on goal.
Tippett loves to fire some lower quality shots and looks from questionable angles, which leaves him with higher shot totals then you might expect for a lesser name.
In Shots on Goal per 60 minutes, Tippett ranks 41st of all NHL skaters this season, and if he gets the minutes, a high output of shots has been consistently following. In Shot Attempts per 60, Tippett ranks 39th at 18.55, so his high average should be sustainable.
Over the last 10 games, Tippett is still averaging 6.20 attempts on goal but has seen fewer attempts than normal getting on goal with an average of just 2.9 Shots on Goal per game.
Considering he is still skating in top minutes on a dreadful Flyers team, I do not believe that lower average holds. Tonight could quietly be a better spot than most would expect against a historically strong Bruins team.
Pick: Owen Tippett Over 3.5 Shots on Goal |
Travis Konecny Anytime Goal Scorer +210
| Bruins vs. Flyers | Bruins -260 |
| Puck Drop | 6 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
As noted above I believe Philly could be in a decent spot to generate slightly more offense on average than oddsmakers are expecting, especially if the Bruins end up resting some stars.
Konecny is in the midst of stellar season with 56 points in 57 games on a horrific Flyers team. He has looked solid since returning from the IR but has gone missing as his team has gone on recent team-wide quiet nights offensively.
+210 is a long enough number that warrants a smaller play on Konecny to break through in this matchup where there's value in targeting Flyers props as a massive underdog.
Pick: Travis Konecny Anytime Goal Scorer +210 |
Valeri Nichushkin Anytime Goal Scorer +140, Denis Malgin +460 Anytime Goal Scorer
| Avalanche vs. Ducks | Avalanche -335 |
| Puck Drop | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
The Avalanche will look to continue closing out the Central Division title Sunday in Anaheim as they take on a Ducks team which has defended at a historically poor level all season long.
Opposing stars have thrived against the Ducks, and this continues to play out while oddsmakers are not moving the prices enough for a team which is giving up four goals and forty shots seemingly every night.
A case could be made for any of the Avs' top stars in this matchup, but the prices being offered to target Colorado's second line of Valeri Nichushkin, Denis Malgin and J.T. Compher are very enticing.
In a tough matchup against the Kings last night, the Avs second line generated two goals from Malgin and played to a strong 64.7% Expected Goals Rating while skating in much tougher matchups than they will face tonight.
Malgin has some sneaky finishing ability and has managed to put together 10 goals over his last 27 games with Colorado. On nights he remains on the second line and second powerplay unit +460 is a pretty attractive price to score a goal, and particularly so in a matchup where his side has a team total of 4.5.
Nichushkin is also a threat to do damage on the Avs' top powerplay unit, which could have a field day against the third worst PK unit in the league.
Lastly, while we are on the subject of the Avs' powerplay, I will note that Devon Toews is currently filling in for Cale Makar on the top unit, as opposed to Bowen Byram, as we saw for a stretch in March.
If you happen to have the option to play Toews to record a powerplay point at a length number, that is another interesting option in this matchup.
Pick: Valeri Nichushkin Anytime Goal Scorer |
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