Senators vs. Golden Knights Updated Odds, Prediction, Preview: Back Home Dogs in Ottawa

Senators vs. Golden Knights Updated Odds, Prediction, Preview: Back Home Dogs in Ottawa article feature image
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Matt Zambonin/Freestyle Photography/Getty Images. Pictured: Drake Batherson (left) and Brady Tkachuk (right).

  • Updated odds for Senators vs. Golden Knights list Ottawa as a short home underdog, down at least 10 cents since last night, depending on the book.
  • Vegas is dealing with all kinds of injuries while the Sens have been playing well but not finding results like their underlying metrics indicate they should.
  • Get our Senators vs. Golden Knights pick and preview below.

Senators vs. Knights Odds

Golden Knights Odds -120
Senators Odds +105
Over/Under 5.5o-115
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

The Vegas Golden Knights make the second stop of their four-game Eastern Conference road trip against the Ottawa Senators on Thursday night. The Knights are off to a slow start, but they enter the contest as short faves against a Sens team that has dropped three straight at home.

Senators Due for Some Positive Regression

Despite the three straight setbacks, the Sens have been pretty good on home ice this season. Ottawa has posted an expected goals-for percentage above 53.8% at 5 on 5 in four of their five games. Cumulatively, they have a strong expected goals-for percentage of 53.6%, thanks to some effective offensive metrics.

The Sens have attempted 24 or more scoring and 10 or more high-danger chances in three of their five home games this season. Those metrics jump substantially across all strengths, going to 34 and 14, respectively, in three of five games. Ottawa has underachieved relative to their underlying metrics, scoring more than three goals just once in five home games.

That difference is reflected in the Sens actual output and PDO — which adds together a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage at even strength.

Ottawa has an actual goals-for percentage below expected and a PDO below 1.000. We should anticipate some positive regression from the Senators.


Knights Not Improving After Slow Start

The Knights are off to an atypical start this season. After dominating the league for the past three seasons, the Knights have been unable to keep pace with their opponents this season. Their poor start is reflected in their 4-5-0 record, and their underlying metrics don’t paint any prettier a picture.

Vegas has been remarkably ineffective over their recent sample of games as it tries to cope with the losses of about seven regular skaters and stars Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty and now Willam Karlsson.

The Golden Knights have put up an expected goals-for percentage above 36.7% at 5 on 5 just once over their past four games. In total, their expected goals-for percentage is 39.6% over that span, and they’ve scored more than one 5 on 5 goal just once. This team is used to dominating at even strength.

Defensively, the Knights are worse this season than last season, and at least part of that is due to Robin Lehner.  Lehner has not adapted well to the primary goalie role in Vegas, posting a below average save percentage and -2.1 goals saved above average through eight starts with Marc-Andre Fleury no longer in town.

Senators vs. Golden Knights Pick

The advanced metrics don’t support that the Knights should be favored against the Sens tonight. Ottawa is due for some positive regression and can generate offense at home.

The Knights stumbled out of the gates and have been even worse over their recent set of games without so many key players. We’re backing the home side at plus-money. As of Thursday morning, FanDuel is at +110 while most of the market is at +105.

Pick: Senators +105

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