NHL PrizePicks Player Props: Value on Connor McDavid, Darcy Kuemper & More on Tuesday
Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97).
- Tony Sartori breaks down his five favorite PrizePicks plays for Tuesday's Game 1 between the Oilers and Avalanche.
- He's eying four overs and one under with value tonight.
- Check out his analysis and picks below.
Game 1 of the Western Conference Final is set for Tuesday as the Colorado Avalanche host the Edmonton Oilers at 8 p.m. ET. With only one NHL game tonight, there are still some great player props to attack.
Below are my five best PrizePicks props for the slate. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays, correctly predicting 5-of-5 props registers a 10x payout, 4-of-5 registers a 2x payout and 3-of-5 registers a 0.4x payout.
You can also take these plays and do smaller parlays with just two or three props for lower payouts.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (31) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NHL PrizePicks Player Props
Connor McDavid Over 0.5 Goals
I expect the best player on the planet to start this round off with a bang as Connor McDavid has been on one of the greatest playoff runs of all time. McDavid has registered at least one goal in six of his last eight games (75%) and should have a good opportunity to keep it going against Colorado and goaltender Darcy Kuemper.
Out of the four remaining starting goaltenders left in the playoffs, Kuemper ranks last this postseason in both save percentage and five-on-five Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) per 60 minutes. In the last round against the St. Louis Blues, Kuemper possessed a mere 0.892 save percentage.
I would not play this total if it jumps up to one.
Darcy Kuemper Over 2.5 Goals Allowed
As I hinted at above, Kuemper should be a strong fade candidate in this series. Ranking last in both save percentage and five-on-five GSAx per 60 minutes, Kuemper is the only goaltender left in the playoffs with a negative GSAx.
Allowing three or more goals in three of his last five games (60%), I do not see how Kuemper will fare much better against the best offense remaining in the playoffs. Over their 12 playoff games, the Oilers have scored three or more goals in 10 of them (83%).
I would not play this number at anything higher than 2.5.
Darnell Nurse Over 2 Shots on Goal
This number is set too low as Darnell Nurse really picked up his play in the Second Round against the Calgary Flames. Nurse has now registered at least two Shots on Goal in five of his last eight games (63%).
Leading all Oilers defensemen in share of possible ice time percentage, Nurse will have plenty of opportunities to get at least a few Shots on Goal. In the two meetings against Colorado this season where he played the full game, Nurse reached at least three Shots on Goal each time.
I would not play this total above 2.
Tyson Barrie Under 2 Shots on Goal
While I am backing one Edmonton defenseman for Shots on Goal, I am fading another in Tyson Barrie. Barrie failed to go over this total in four of the five games (80%) against the Flames in the Second Round and could be a good fade candidate moving forward.
In the two meetings against Colorado this season where he played the full game, Barrie failed to go over this total in each game. The Brett Kulak/Barrie defensive pairing ranks last on Edmonton in shot attempts for per 60 minutes, and going against a stingy Colorado defense should not change anything.
I would not play this total if It drops down to 1.5.
Bowen Byram Over 2 Shots on Goal
This may be a trap line, but I am taking the bait as Bowen Byram has reached at least two shots on goal in each of his last six games. As the playoffs have progressed, Byram has gotten more playing time and solidified himself as a solid blue liner for the Avalanche.
The Byram/Erik Johnson defensive pairing ranks first on the Avalanche in shot attempts for per 60 minutes, and I would be shocked if that changes against an Edmonton team that allows a lot of shots on net. In the playoffs, the Oilers rank last among the four remaining teams with 37.18 Shots on Goal against per 60 minutes.
I would play this number up to 2.5.