2020 Updated Ohio Election Odds: State Goes Off the Board
MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Donald Trump
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Ohio Election Odds
Odds as of Nov. 3 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Joe Biden’s +183 odds mean a $100 bet would net $183 if he wins Ohio. Convert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Also note that the implied probabilities above do not include the tax the book charges.
538 Ohio Projection
Polling averages and projections as of Oct. 30 and via FiveThirtyEight. Go to their 2020 Election Forecast to learn more.
Ohio Presidential Race Updates
Tuesday, Nov. 3: The odds in Ohio continues to move in Donald Trump’s favor; as do the polls and forecasts. Trump has a 67.5% chance to capture Ohio, up from 64.6% over the weekend.
Friday, Oct. 30: Based on FiveThirtyEight’s forecast and polling average, Ohio could be the closest race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
As for the betting market, it favors Trump — 64.6% to 35.4% — with the odds holding steady in that range over the past two weeks.
Friday, Oct. 16: With less than three weeks until Election Day, the betting market gives Donald Trump a 55.7% implied probability of winning Ohio compared to Joe Biden’s 44.3% implied probability.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, which simulates the election 40,000 times, projects this race to be a dead heat with Trump winning 51 out of every 100 times compared to Biden’s 49. The site’s average of polls reflects the closeness, with the President and the former Vice President tied at an even 47%.
With the betting odds, polling data and FiveThirtyEight’s model projecting this to be a close race, the results could be pivotal in determining who wins the electoral college. With 18 of the 538 total electoral votes, Ohio has the fifth-most electoral votes in the country.
Trump’s 2016 win in Ohio was his second-largest margin of victory among states that had voted for Barack Obama in 2012 but flipped to vote for Trump. He ended up winning 304 of the electoral college votes that election compared to Hillary Clinton’s 227.
Ohio has correctly voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1964.