Arsenal vs Chelsea Odds, Pick: Premier League Value on the Gunners (May 2)
Via Catherine Ivill/Getty Images. Pictured: Oleksandr Zinchenko of Arsenal during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Arsenal FC at Etihad Stadium on April 26, 2023 in Manchester, England.
- Arsenal hosts Chelsea on Tuesday in an English Premier League clash.
- The Gunners are looking for momentum as they return home, but will Chelsea rise to the occasion?
- BJ Cunningham breaks down the matchup and shares his betting pick below.
Arsenal vs Chelsea Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-127/ +105)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-114/ -115)|
|Odds via BetRivers. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Arsenal looks to end their bad run of form when they host fellow London club Chelsea at the Emirates.
Arsenal’s title hopes essentially vanished after a 4-1 drubbing at the Etihad against Manchester City on Wednesday. Arsenal now needs to pick themselves up and find the form that got them into poll position in the first place. They have a red hot Newcastle waiting for them on Sunday, so it is absolutely crucial to get all three points here.
Chelsea are a club in a state of disarray at the moment. They are not going to get relegated, and they aren’t going to qualify for a European spot. Add in that Frank Lampard will be in charge until the end of the season and a bunch of players are going to be shipped out in the summer to comply with FFP rules after spending over $600 million the last two transfer windows, and it makes for a very weird situation at Stamford Bridge.
I understand the Gunners are going through a bad run of form at the moment, but this is a perfect opportunity for them to find some momentum.
Arsenal have struggled because of injuries. The Gunners are one of the best teams in the world at building out from the back and creating numerical advantages in certain areas of the pitch. William Saliba is a major part of that because of his ability as a ball carrier and passer. With Rob Holding in the lineup, Arsenal loses that ability to play through pressure with ease, and defensive mistakes have done them in.
Both Oleksander Zinchenko and Granit Xhaka being in and out of the lineup hasn’t help things either. Both of them are very important in Arsenal’s build up play because typically Zinchenko will invert into the midfield alongside Thomas Partey. This allows Xhaka to push forward alongside Odegaard to create a box midfield, which creates overloads in the middle of the pitch and also gives Saka and Martinelli one-on-one opportunities in the wide areas of the pitch. The good news for Arsenal is that both Zinchenko and Xhaka are healthy, which helps them in their build up play.
It’s also important not to overreact to Arsenal’s recent woes. Two of their three draws came on the road along with the loss to Manchester City. Arsenal have been incredible at the Emirates this season, putting up a +21 xGD in 16 matches with their lone loss coming to Manchester City.
Maybe Lampard doesn’t have what it takes to be manager because he’s reverted Chelsea back to his 4-5-1 passive press out of possession, which is the same structure that Ralph Ragnick was playing at Manchester United last season. Lampard has also brought Chelsea out in four different formations in his four matches in charge, so this is truly a team without an identity or structure.
Chelsea have quit, plain and simple. They’re just waiting for the appointment of Mauricio Pochettino. Chelsea are now looking to offload 11 players this summer after spending an outrageous amount of money during the January transfer window, so there is a real lame duck feel around Stamford Bridge right now.
Additionally, in a vacuum, even though Chelsea have been on a poor finishing run since we came back from the World Cup, overall for the season they only have a +0.6 xGD.
To beat Arsenal, you have to disrupt their build up play and force high turnovers. If Chelsea were under Graham Potter, I’d give them a puncher’s chance because Potter’s Chelsea were No. 1 in the Premier League in PPDA at 8.4. In three matches under Frank Lampard, their PPDA is now at 11.6, which is very concerning considering the only good buildup team they faced was Brighton, who absolutely dismantled them at Stamford Bridge.
Arsenal vs Chelsea
I love this spot for Arsenal against a Chelsea team that is already thinking about where they’ll be going on holiday when the season ends.
If Arsenal are able to build out of the back without much resistance and sustain pressure on Chelsea for a majority of the match, this one should go very similarly to the previous meeting at Stamford Bridge, when Arsenal created 2.1 xG to Chelsea’s 0.3 xG and won the match 1-0.
Plus, add in that Arsenal are so much better at the Emirates than they are away from home, and Chelsea has a -2.7 xGD away from home, and you won’t find a better spot.
Consequently, I like the value on the Gunners -1 at +100 (BetRivers)
Pick: Arsenal -1 (+100)
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