Aston Villa vs Chelsea Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
(Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images) Pictured: Malo Gusto (left) and Cole Palmer (right).
Aston Villa vs Chelsea Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | +120 |
| Chelsea Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +110 / -130 |
Aston Villa hold a six-point edge over Tottenham for the fourth and likely final place for English teams in next year's Champions League. Not only are Villa into a Europa Conference League semifinal, but Unai Emery's side knocked off Arsenal off the top of the PL table (for the moment) and Villa have a chance to close the door on Spurs' top four hopes. Villa's six point edge over Spurs is a bit of a mirage because Tottenham have two extra matches to play in the season.
Given the struggles right now of sixth place Manchester United and seventh place Newcastle, Chelsea will feel it can make a run at one of those European places. Chelsea are six and three points back of both but has a game in hand on both as well. The Blues are underdogs to sneak into the top seven and their inconsistency from match to match makes it difficult to see them string together wins.
The primary problem for Chelsea is the defense, which has been a bottom seven unit in the second half of the season. When you combine that with Aston Villa's own defensive issues, you get a recipe for end to end action and goals in this critical top eight clash on Saturday.
Here is my Aston Villa vs Chelsea prediction in my newest Premier League match preview.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa came from behind at the weekend to beat Bournemouth, 3-1, after falling behind to a first half penalty from Dominic Solanke. The Villans yet again conceded more than 1.5 total expected goals in the match, though, which extends a streak to 11 consecutive league matches in which the defense has allowed at least that much xG. It's been the part of broader defensive issues for Emery's team that has only gotten worse in the second half of the season.
Villa's three main attacking players have all been super productive and are currently fit and firing for the club. Ollie Watkins (0.71 xG + xA per 90), Moussa Diaby (0.56) and Leon Bailey (0.69) all continue to provide clear top six level attacking production. All three excel running into space behind defenses, which makes this Chelsea matchup a positive one for the Villa attack.
These two sides have met three times this season overall. Chelsea missed a ton of big chances in the first match, picked up a red card and then lost 1-0. They then met twice in two end-to-end FA Cup encounters in January, which ended 0-0 and 3-1 to Chelsea. The Villans are the more reliable and consistent team from a finishing perspective, but they have conceded nearly two xG per match since 2024 began and their defense gives up a ton of big chances in behind because of how their high line and offside trap approach works. It's a high wire act that has slowly declined throughout the season.
Chelsea
Nicolas Jackson's poor finishing run aside, Chelsea's attack has largely been cooking in the second half of the season. Cole Palmer missed Tuesday's trip to Arsenal through illness but he should be back on Saturday for this match. Palmer's goal total is clearly inflated by penalties, but the young forward is still producing an excellent 0.70 xG + xA per 90 even after removing penalties from the sample entirely.
Chelsea had no answers to playing through Arsenal's out of possession press on Tuesday at the Emirates. Like the match at Anfield, Chelsea lacked the organization in possession to play through the press and lacked the playmakers to exploit Arsenal when they did break into advanced positions. Liverpool turned them over high and dominated them with a ton of goals in transitions. Arsenal largely did the same by forcing 14 high turnovers and producing six shots off them.
This match is more similar to how City play because Villa do not offer much of a press out of possession. Chelsea's midfield and back line will have more time on the ball to pick out those passes in behind, and the Blues found a ton of success creating chances in all three meetings against City this season.
The Blues' defense remains poor overall with its consistency in conceding chances and their inability to control games. But Nicolas Jackson has some positive finishing regression coming and I have the Chelsea attack projected for 1.67 goals in this match.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea
Prediction
These two teams might be in the top eight in underlying metrics and points amassed this season, but it's not because of either team's defense. Villa and Chelsea have different defensive issues, but they end up around the same results wise. Neither team is able to prevent opponents from creating 1.5-2.0 xG consistently, and I have no reason to expect this match to be all that different.
I'd bet over 3.5 at +100 or better and project 3.6 goals in total.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+110)
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