Tuesday Champions League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Betting Preview (Sept. 14)
Jan Woitas/picture alliance via Getty Images. Pictured: Bayern Munich star Robert Lewandowski.
Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Odds
|Bayern Munich Odds||-105|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+105 / -130)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Paramount+ | UniMás | fuboTV|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.|
Soccer royalty square off in Champions League action Tuesday when Spanish giant Barcelona hosts German juggernaut Bayern Munich at Camp Nou.
The historic clubs will battle in an opening Group E match, which is part of opening day for the 32-team European showcase. Benfica and Dynamo Kyiv tussle in the other meeting at NSC Olimpiyskyi in Ukraine.
Barcelona enters this affair without Lionel Messi leading the way. Arguably the greatest player in the world, the Argentinian star made the move to Paris Saint-Germain and will guide the French side in Group A of the competition.
As for Bayern Munich, the Bundesliga champion hopes to rekindle the magic it experienced two years ago when it captured the UCL crown. The title, which came in a 1-0 shutout against PSG, was historic for the Bavarians, as they achieved a rare continental treble in the process. The club won the DFB-Pokal (German Cup) that season as well.
Bayern Munich enters this matchup as a -105 moneyline favorite, which is pretty substantial considering this is a road fixture and it’s facing a more than formidable opponent. That said, let’s take a look at what might be in the cards.
Barcelona Seeking Fresh Identity Minus Messi
It doesn’t matter if you’re the strongest or weakest team in Europe. Transfers, player movement and inevitable change happen. Unfortunately for La Blaugrana, the best player in their storied history left and created a void that will in all likelihood never be filled.
Messi’s departure, as well Antoine Griezmann jetting back to Atlético Madrid, took Barcelona from being a great to a very good side in one fell swoop when he packed his bags and took his talents to the French capital. And his absence in the Barça lineup has shown just three games into the La Liga campaign.
Sure, La Blaugrana is unbeaten at 2-0-1 (W-L-D), but the results haven’t been as dominating as seasons’ past. A season-opening, 4-2 win over Real Sociedad was good, but a 1-1 stalemate with Athletic Bilbao followed and told a very different tale. Barça wound up on the worse end of the metrics, finishing with 1.6-1.0 xG disadvantage and needed a 75th-minute equalizer from Memphis Depay to secure the point.
Then came the win over lowly Getafe, where it only mustered a 1.5-0.4 xG edge and really lacked a punch in its offensive third of the pitch. Injuries have also plagued Barcelona, with Sergio Aguero, Ansu Fait and Ousmane Dembele set to miss the showdown.
Lewandowski Gets Bayern Munich Off to Flying Start
Not a whole lot has changed for the Bavarians, who continue to be the dominant force in the German top flight. They’ve come out of the gates unbeaten through four league games, with the lone “blemish” being an opening 1-1 draw with Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Since then, Bayern Munich has been an offensive machine en route to three consecutive Bundesliga wins. They’ve scored 12 goals in those victories, with Robert Lewandowski racing up six goals — including a hat trick two games back against Hertha Berlin — to pace the Bavarians.
When it comes to the advanced metrics, they’re as crooked as you probably imagined. Bayern Munich has racked up a ridiculous 12.5 xG and conceded a relatively paltry 3.8 xG, generating a gaudy 8.7 xGDiff and +2.18 xG differential per 90 minutes.
What should scare La Blaugrana’s fan base the most is what the Bavarians did to RB Leipzig this past weekend at Red Bull Arena. They dominated proceedings in a 4-1 rout, highlighted by a gaudy 4.2-0.5 xG advantage and utterly dominant performance on both sides of the pitch.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Like everyone with an unbiased opinion, it’s really hard to poke holes in this Bayern Munich side. Everything is clicking for the Bavarians up to this point, which isn’t the case for their beleaguered, banged-up hosts.
For that reason, I’m going to keep this really simple and back Bayern Munich on the moneyline at -105 odds as my top selection. The German outfit has too many ways and weapons to break down Barcelona’s less-than-solid defense, even away from home on Spanish soil.
If you’re into player props, it’s hard to back Lewandowski to score anytime at -165 odds. That’s way too much juice for my liking. So, let’s go deeper down the board and take a swing on Leroy Sané on the same wager at a more palatable +320 odds. Sané opened his account in the rout of RB Leipzig, so maybe that form will carry over in this confrontation.
Pick: Bayern Munich ML (-105)