Bundesliga Betting Odds & Picks for Borussia Dortmund vs. Hertha Berlin (Saturday, June 6)

Hertha Berlin at Borussia Dortmund Odds

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Borussia Dortmund enters this weekend seven points behind Bayern Munich with just five matches to play. While catching them is highly improbable, Dortmund will look to extend its gap over third-place RB Leipzig and secure second place as Hertha Berlin visit on Saturday.

Few teams have played better than Hertha since the return, as the Old Lady has won three of four matches and outplayed Leipzig in a 2-2 draw last week.

In those four matches, Hertha has scored 11 goals and conceded two, and outplayed its opponents on expected goals 6.8-4.4.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Hertha’s dominance has been particularly impressive in the second halves of its last four matches, where Berlin has outscored opponents, 9-1. This second half surge isn’t a departure from season-long trends, where Hertha has scored 30 second-half goals to 13 in the first half.

While the second half tends to be higher scoring, this difference is stark. Hertha has shown an ability to pile up goals in a hurry against Hoffenheim and Union, scoring three and four second half goals, respectively.

On the other side, Dortmund have also reserved the overwhelming majority of their scoring to the second half. While they did nab three in the opening half against lowly Schalke, Dortmund have scored one and conceded one in the first 45 minutes of its last three games combined. BVB’s six-goal, second-half explosion against bottom of the table Paderborn showed their attacking potential when the game opened up. Over the course of the season, Dortmund have 54 second-half goals to 26 in the opening frame.

Playing without star striker Erling Haaland against Paderborn, Dortmund took more time to break through and find its first goal, and he will miss Saturday’s match as well.

Defensively, BVB has improved dramatically, conceding three goals in its last eight Bundesliga matches. While they are known for their free-flowing and (remarkly overperforming the metrics) offense, Dortmund’s sturdy defense has propelled them ahead of Leipzig and into second. I’ll bet on that sturdy defense to keep Hertha off the board for at least 45 minutes.

I want no part of betting the full-game under when all evidence suggests that this game could break wide open in the second 45, with two teams playing with nothing to lose throwing numbers forward.

For that reason, I’ll stay away from the full-game under, and lay under 1.5 in the opening 45.