Brazil vs South Korea Odds, Pick: Expect a Low-Scoring Match

Brazil vs South Korea Odds, Pick: Expect a Low-Scoring Match article feature image

Simon Bruty/Getty. Pictured: Casemiro.

Brazil vs. South Korea Odds

Monday, Dec. 5
2 p.m. ET
Brazil Odds-350
South Korea Odds+1100
Over/Under2.5 (-125 / +100)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+137 / -188)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

World Cup favorite Brazil take on South Korea as they look to book their spot in the quarterfinals.

Things got a little nervy on the final day, but Brazil ended up winning Group G. However, the Brazilians lost their first match in regular time in a competitive competition since the 2018 World Cup in their last match against Cameroon.

South Korea qualified for the round of 16 in the most dramatic fashion with a stoppage time goal to beat Portugal and edge Uruguay by the goals scored tiebreaker. The South Koreans have shown an incredible ability on the counter and you could say they've been the better side in all three of their group stage matches, so they will be not push overs.

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Brazil Impressive But Not Perfect

Brazil were impressive in their first two World Cup matches, beating Serbia and Switzerland, but they failed to close things out against Cameroon.

They are still the tournament favorite and Brazil will most likely be getting their star man Neymar back from an ankle injury he suffered in their first match against Serbia.

Brazil confirm Neymar is available to play against South Korea 🙌

— GOAL (@goal) December 4, 2022

Even without Neymar for a majority of the tournament, Brazil have incredible underlying numbers, creating 5.9 expected goals (xG), and only allowing 1.0 xG in three group stage matches. Brazil were one of the best defensive teams coming into the tournament, allowing just 0.74 xG per 90 minutes throughout Copa America and World Cup Qualifying.

Tite has been at the hem of Brazil since 2016 and by now it’s pretty clear what Brazil’s tactics are. The are going to play out of a 4-3-3, but the team's shape with change throughout the match.

What often happens when Brazil is in possession is they use a positional-based system that has allowed them to be much more structured. They also love to push the two wide midfielders up the pitch and squeeze the two wingers close to Neymar, which essentially creates a 3-2-5 with one of the two full backs pressing up to create a double pivot with Casemiro. 

Brazil will have a majority of the possession, but they need to be careful of South Korea's quick strike ability and not lose the ball high up the pitch. 

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South Korea Have a Clear Style of Play

South Korea have been really impressive during this World Cup and deserve to be in the round of 16. They ended up with a +0.5 xGD, which is really impressive in a group with Uruguay and Portugal. Although most of it came in the match against Ghana, South Korea had the third most passes into the penalty area during the group stage.

However, this match is going to set up similarly to their first match against Uruguay. South Korea did such a good job of taking away the middle of the pitch and not allowing Federico Valverde and Rodrigo Bentancur to make easy passes to the front line. They are likely going to force Brazil to play the ball out wide and beat them with crosses into the box.

South Korea play direct and aggressive. They love to get the ball moving forward at a rapid pace on the counter whether it be long balls or combination passes, which is what you need to do if you want to beat Brazil. 

Their forwards are always prepared to make runs in behind the last line of defense, which they have done with a lot of success this World Cup. However, they haven't faced a possession-dominant side like Brazil yet, so we'll see how they cope having to defend in their own area for a majority of the match.

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Brazil vs. South Korea Pick

These two played a friendly over the summer with Brazil pounding South Korea 5-1. However, there isn't much you can take away from friendlies and South Korea will be much more conservative defensively.

With Brazil's slow possession-based style, combined with South Korea's compact low block, I think will lead to a low-event type of match.

I only have 2.12 goals projected for this game, so I like the value on the under.

The Pick: Under 2.5 (+100) 

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