Wednesday Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Schalke vs. Frankfurt Preview (June 17)

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John MacDougal, Getty Images.

  • We expect Schalke vs. Frankfurt to be a snoozer, with 2.61 expected goals projected. That offers value on the under, since it's juiced to +120.
  • Frankfurt's stormed past 10-man Hertha Berlin, 4-1, in its last match after a questionable red card, so don't take too much from that offensive outburst.
  • Both teams are safely in the middle of the Bundesliga table, but have plenty of work to do if they want to qualify for European football next year.

Schalke 04 at Frankfurt Odds and Picks

Schalke odds +350
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Frankfurt odds -143
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Draw odds +310
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Over/Under 2.5 (-148/+120)
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Time Wednesday, 12:30 p.m. ET
TV FS2

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Wednesday’s showdown between Frankfurt vs. Schalke is a battle between two teams with very little left to play for.

Both teams currently sit in the middle of the table and are safe from relegation but also have too much room to make up in the race for European Football.

Frankfurt’s last game saw them put away 10-man Hertha Berlin, 4-1, after a questionable red card while Schalke finally put together a decent effort in a well-deserved draw with Bayer Leverkusen.

It will be interesting to see how motivated each team is with seemingly nothing on the line.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Frankfurt

Die Adler has been in a weird run of form since the Bundesliga resumed play.

Frankfurt are winless in their three home matches and have been outscored, 8-4, in those contests. That is unusual for Frankfurt as they were putting up decent defensive numbers before the world came to a halt. That hasn’t been the case lately, though, as Frankfurt’s defense has been leaky over the past month:

  • Expected Goals Against per game (before break): 1.38
  • Expected Goals Against per game (after break): 2.18

Despite their recent struggles, I still maintain that Frankfurt is one of the most underrated teams in the Bundesliga and probably deserve to be fighting for a Europa League spot, at least according to their underlying metrics.

According to expected points, Die Adler should be more than 9 points higher in the table (47.14 xPoints vs. 38 actual points) and their +5.43 xG differential is the seventh-best mark in the Bundesliga.

Although Die Adler have been stellar at home this season, their recent form makes me a little uneasy backing them at such a high price.

Schalke

Schalke finally played up to their standards on Sunday in their draw with Leverkusen. Die Knappen managed to create over 1.00 xGs for the first time since the break and, based on the expected goals report, Schalke was the better side in the game.

Outside of their last game its been bleak for David Wagner’s side. Winless in six tries since the break, Schalke are in the worst form of any Bundesliga team.

Lately, being away from the Veltins-Arena has been a nightmare for Schalke. Die Knappen have only managed a measly 4 points in their last nine matches away from home.

Their offensive output has been especially troubling as they’ve only managed to register 0.87 xG per game in those nine matches. It’s hard to see where the goals are going to come from right now for Schalke.

Analysis

  • Frankfurt project odds: -147 (59.47% win probability)
  • Schalke projected odds: +496 (16.78%)
  • Draw projected odds: +321 (23.75%)
  • Frankfurt projected xG: 1.72
  • Schalke projected xG: 0.89

Looking at the numbers, I don’t see any value in backing either side, but there is value on the total. I project this game for 2.61 expected goals so I think there’s value on the Under 2.5 Goals at +120.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals (+120)

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