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Champions League Best Bets: How to Play Porto vs. Atletico Madrid & Bayer Leverkusen vs. Club Brugge

Champions League Best Bets: How to Play Porto vs. Atletico Madrid & Bayer Leverkusen vs. Club Brugge article feature image
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BSR Agency/Getty. Pictured: FC Porto.

  • Group H in the Champions League wraps up on Tuesday.
  • Two games will be played, featuring Porto vs. Atletico & Leverkusen vs. Brugge.
  • Here's how Nick Hennion is playing the fixtures.

Champions League Group B already has its two knockout round representatives, but there’s still a lot left to play for on Matchday 6.

Entering Tuesday’s slate of matches, Club Brugge sits on 10 points with Porto arriving on nine points. Then, Atletico Madrid sits in third with five points and Bayer Leverkusen brings up the rear with four points. Based on those standings, the former pair can both win the group while the latter duo still has Europa League within grasp.

So, how should bettors handle these two fixtures on Tuesday? Let’s get to my best bet for each contest.

Group H Champions League Best Bets

FC Porto vs. Atletico Madrid

Porto Odds +150
Atletico Odds +185
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (+100/ -125)
Day | Time Tuesday | 1:45 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Porto lost the first fixture in Madrid, but they thoroughly dominated that match.

Despite conceding two goals, the Porto defense allowed only 0.59 expected goals on target (xGOT) and a single big scoring chance against hosts Atletico. Plus, Porto appears to have found their form in the last three Champions League fixtures, posting a +3.7 xGOT.

In Atletico’s three fixtures against those same opponents – at Brugge and two games against Leverkusen – manager Diego Simeone’s side posted a -1.56 xGOT differential.

Further, this is a Madrid team that has struggled immensely away from home this season. In nine combined La Liga and Champions League road fixtures, Atletico have a +1.73 xGOT differential, including a -2.56 xGOT differential in two UCL fixtures.

Personally, I believe Porto have the bigger motivation in this fixture and will show it come Tuesday. Finally, it’s worth noting that – underlying metrics aside – the home team has avoided defeat in seven of the first 10 group matches.

Add in the revenge angle to this fixture – not only did Porto lose in Madrid, but it fell against Los Rojiblancos at home last season – and I’ll back Porto on the draw no bet line up to -140.

Pick: Porto – Draw No Bet (-130)

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Club Brugge

Leverkusen Odds -175
Brugge Odds +420
Draw +360
Over/Under 3.5 (+130 / -160)
Day | Time Tuesday | 1:45 p.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

The first fixture between these sides was a drab 1-0 Brugge win, but bettors should expect more offense in Germany.

This season at home, Leverkusen have proven themselves capable of generating some high-quality scoring chances. In six Bundesliga home fixtures, Leverkusen have created 1.81 xGOT per 90 minutes and 2.83 big scoring chances per 90 minutes.

Add in two Champions League fixtures to that sample and bettors will find those figures rise to 1.83 xGOT per 90 minutes and 2.88 big scoring chances per 90 minutes.

It’s certainly possible Club Brugge goalkeeper Simon Mignolet will stand on his head again, but I’m going to trust the underlying metrics more. So far this competition, Brugge have surrendered 1.82 xGOT per 90 minutes and 3.6 big chances per 90. Just in the last two fixtures against Atletico and Porto, Brugge have allowed at least 2.45 xGOT.

At the same time, the Brugge attack has created 1.41 xGOT per 90 minutes in five UCL fixtures and is facing a Leverkusen defense that has allowed 1.72 xGOT per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga and Champions League combined.

For those reasons, bet this game over the total up to -135.

Pick: Over 3 (-130 via DraftKings)

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