Champions League Round of 16: Will Barcelona Cruise Against Lyon?
FC Barcelona. Pictured: Leo Messi
- Barcelona are big favorites to win and advance to the Champions League quarterfinals as they take on Lyon at Camp Nou on Wednesday (4 p.m. ET on B/R Live and fuboTV).
- Most of the early money has come in on Barcelona to secure a home victory but some bettors have been brave enough to take Lyon.
- Teams taking a 0-0 draw back home for the return leg have advanced 68% of the time in Champions League history.
The opening leg between Lyon and Barcelona was scoreless despite the Catalan side attempting more than 20 shots.
History is on Barcelona’s side in this fixture as the home team in the second leg has had a distinct edge when drawing 0-0 in the opener, advancing 67.7% of the time (21 of 31).
Betting Odds (Tied 0-0)
Lyon earned a valiant 0-0 home draw against Barcelona in the opening leg. Nonetheless, they’re still +350 underdogs to advance as they travel to Camp Nou on Wednesday night. They’re +1100 to win the match outright and +630 to draw.
Les Gones have drawn their last six Champions League matches (a seventh would set a record). Lyon and Barcelona are both undefeated in the competition this year.
Barcelona essentially have the same odds to win the second leg as they do to advance, since that’s what it’ll take to do so. A 0-0 draw would send the game to extra time while any other draw or loss would see Lyon through to the quarterfinals.
The last time Barcelona did not reach the Champions League quarterfinals was in 2006-07 when they lost to Liverpool in the Round of 16. Lyon last made the quarterfinals in 2009-10 when they beat Bordeaux before dropping to Bayern Munich in the semifinals.
Injuries + Suspensions
- Barcelona: Ousmane Dembele (questionable), Rafinha (out), Thomas Vermaelen (out)
- Lyon: Marcelo (probable), Rafael (questionable), Amine Gouiri (out)
Betting Market Breakdown
Lyon have been on fire lately, scoring 10 goals in their last three Ligue 1 matches, but that competition is nowhere near Barcelona’s level.
Barcelona have been rolling themselves, winning four straight since the 0-0 draw with Lyon.
Barca won on the road against Real Madrid, twice, then dispatched Rayo Vallecano, 3-1, over the weekend. At home, they’ve scored in every single match this season.
For Wednesday’s match, Barcelona have moved from -370 to -450 since opening. More than 90% of the money has come in on the home side winning despite being responsible for just 56% of tickets.
The over/under has seen balanced betting action and very little movement at 3.5.
I’m curious to see where the moneyline ends up but would expect bettors to come in late on Barcelona, even in the -500 range. A more enticing bet would be Barcelona -1.5 goals, but most sportsbooks are only offering -2 at plus-money.
Messi can make a play every single time he has the ball and it’s hard to fathom Barcelona not scoring at least two goals on home soil.
While I certainly lean toward Barcelona winning, I just don’t see a whole lot of value in the current moneyline or spread.
One option I’ll be keeping available is to live bet Barcelona if they don’t score early, or if Lyon happen to take a first half lead since the prices will be far better.
- Barcelona entered Tuesday with the second-best odds to lift the trophy.
- Lyon are still 150-1 longshots to win the Champions League, and they’ll be hoping to pull off an upset like Manchester United and Ajax.
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