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Betting Market Breakdown for Tuesday’s Champions League Group Stage Matches

Nov 27, 2018 8:40 PM EST
  • Champions League group stage action returns on Tuesday with intriguing matches including Roma-Real Madrid (3 p.m. ET) and Juventus-Valencia (3 p.m. ET)
  • Both public and sharp bettors have been active in shaping the market and we're seeing one of the most lopsided wagers of the season.
  • Below I've previewed all eight matches and offered value plays to make.

The penultimate Champions League Group Stage matches will take place this week, starting with an eight-game slate on Tuesday.

There’s plenty at stake since most clubs are still battling for seeding, or just to advance to the knockout round.

After analyzing the betting market, I’ve picked out two value plays after breaking down each match.

2018-19 Champions League Season Record: 7-8-1 (+0.07 units)


>> All odds and betting %’s as of Monday at 4 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time Champions League updates and track all your bets.


Ajax at AEK Athens (12:55 p.m. ET on TNT)
Moneylines: Ajax -140, AEK +430, Draw +290
Total: 2.5 (u-115)

Ajax have been a pleasant surprise in the Champions League this season, and can qualify to the knockout round with a victory at AEK Athens on Tuesday.

The hosts have struggled in the competition, losing all four group matches while being outscored 10-2. They’ve got roughly a 20% chance of upsetting Ajax outright, and 25% chance to earn a draw.

Odds seem to be spot-on here even though I lean toward Ajax securing the victory.

Viktoria Plzen at CSKA Moscow (12:55 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Plzen +408, CSKA -128, Draw +270
Total: 2.5 (u-130)

Even though it’s a longshot for CSKA Moscow to advance from Group G, I was surprised to see how low the moneyline opened for this matchup against Viktoria Plzen.

Sportsbooks released CSKA Moscow at -115 but quickly had to move the odds up to -125/-130 to appease early bettors. More than 70% of the tickets have come in on CSKA to win and I agree with the public.

I could see this moneyline continue to grow to -150, so it’s better to grab the current line before it moves.

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Credit:

Marca.com. Pictured: Real Madrid’s Gareth Bale takes a shot against Roma

Follow Dan McGuire on Twitter
@ArsenalDMC

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