Chelsea vs Liverpool Preview: Odds & Pick For Tuesday Premier League Fixture
Pictured: Benoit Badiashile of Chelsea. (Photo by Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)
Chelsea vs Liverpool Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-130 / +100)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-160 / +120)|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Chelsea begin a new era without Graham Potter on Tuesday when they host Liverpool at Stamford Bridge.
The Blues decided to fire Graham Potter after a poor run of results that concluded with a 2-0 loss at home to Aston Villa. Who knows who the next permanent Chelsea manager will be, but Chelsea now need to fight to get back into a European position in the table.
Liverpool were dismantled on Saturday at the Etihad by Manchester City, conceding four second half goals on their way to a 4-1 loss. The Reds are falling behind their opposition in the battle for the final Champions League position, so every match from here until the end of the season is absolutely crucial if they want to have any hope of playing European football.
Chelsea Need New Manager Bounce
It’s a results driven business and Graham Potter wasn’t delivering the results, which is ultimately what got him sacked. However, the underlying performances since we returned from the World Cup break have actually been very encouraging for the Blues, as they’ve scored 12 goals off of 21.3 xG.
The final scoreline against Aston Villa will tell you that Chelsea were poor, but they actually had one of their best games of the season under Potter.
Despite losing, #Chelsea played one of their best games under Graham Potter. Their man-oriented high press was particularly impressive – 4.6 PPDA, 54.2m defensive action height, 30% counter-press success rate, 7 high turnovers pic.twitter.com/7NAwSuA85H
— markstats (@markrstats) April 2, 2023
The Blues have loads of talent, but they haven’t found a consistent starting XI and that is a problem as well. If you look at who the league leaders are, Arsenal have barely changed their starting XI all season and have cohesion within the squad.
Fortunately for Chelsea, they’re going up against a club that is also having tons of issues. Manchester City laid out the gameplan on how to beat Liverpool: control possession, tilt the field, play through pressure effectively and the Reds will have no answer.
Chelsea really weren’t that good defensively under Potter when they had to play top tier competition. Against the top eight teams in the Premier League under Potter, Chelsea conceded 11.9 xG in seven matches, including 1.4 to Liverpool in the previous meeting. Additionally, Thiago Silva is still out and it looks like Wesley Fofana is going to miss this match as well.
Liverpool Unable to String Together Performances
Liverpool have tried to play compact and passive, but it’s just not working. They had a PPDA of 17.5 and forced just one high turnover and in turn gave up four goals and 2.4 xG to Manchester City.
Thee personnel that Klopp has, especially in the midfield and at fullback, are not set up to play a low block counter attacking style. They’re meant to press high win the ball in the opponents half of the pitch and most importantly be a field tilt/possession style team. Manchester City tilted the field at 80.1% against Liverpool.
The last time these two faced off it was a thrilling 0-0 draw where 3 xG were created. Not a lot has changed since that meeting on January 21st. Liverpool still have glaring defensive issues and Chelsea are still underperforming offensively.
So, Liverpool essentially have two choices. They can play passive like they did against Manchester City and try to hit Chelsea in transition or they can try to press Chelsea high like they did in the first meeting. This Chelsea team is one of the better teams at playing through pressure in the Premier League, ranking sixth in offensive PPDA, so that may not work again.
Chelsea vs Liverpool Pick
Given what we saw in the previous meeting between these two sides, I think we are in store for a high scoring affair.
Chelsea are the exact opponent Liverpool don’t want to play at the moment. They can control possession, tilt the field on them and play through pressure well. That leaves Liverpool handcuffed in what they can do defensively.
I have 3.43 goals projected for this match, and I absolutely love the value on the over.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-118)
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