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Chelsea vs. Arsenal Preview & Prediction: Will Gunners Remain On Top of Premier League Table?

Chelsea vs. Arsenal Preview & Prediction: Will Gunners Remain On Top of Premier League Table? article feature image
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Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Arsenal standout Gabriel Jesus, right, celebrates a goal.

  • Chelsea and Arsenal will clash in a crucial Premier League fixture?
  • Is there betting value on the fixture?
  • Read on for BJ Cunningham's analysis.

Chelsea vs. Arsenal Odds

Chelsea Odds +155
Arsenal Odds +170
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | Time Sunday | 7 a.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Arsenal look to stay on top of the Premier League table when they makes the short trip to Stamford Bridge for a London Derby with Chelsea.

Chelsea’s good fortune came to an end last weekend when Graham Potter returned home to a 4-1 drubbing at the hands of Brighton & Hove Albion. Chelsea have been underperforming ever since Potter took over and have a ton of injuries at the moment, so this is not the best of spots for them.

Arsenal are at the top of the Premier League table and are coming off a 5-0 win over Nottingham Forest last weekend. The Gunners have been in incredible form this season and only have one loss across all competitions.

However, Mikel Arteta has historically been poor away from home, so we’ll see if that trend continues Sunday at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea Getting Deserved Regression

Chelsea don’t look good right now. Potter’s side was way overdue for a loss after over-performing for a large stretch of games. That loss came against Brighton, and it came in dominant fashion.

Could watch these limbs on repeat! 🎉 pic.twitter.com/HRB9v6Jrqu

— Brighton & Hove Albion (@OfficialBHAFC) November 1, 2022

Since Potter has taken over Chelsea, the Blues have created 7.2 expected goals (xG) and have scored nine times. They have allowed their opponents to create 7.1 xG and have conceded six goals. For the season, Chelsea have a -0.8 xGD.

Additionally, Chelsea lost the xG battle — if you take away the penalties — to Aston Villa, Brentford, Manchester United and Brighton in their past four Premier League matches.

Chelsea are really struggling with turning final-third possessions into high quality chance because they don’t have a go-to striker. In terms of progressive passes + dribbles, box entries and xThreat, Chelsea are in the top six in all of those categories, but are outside the top 10 in shots in the penalty area and big scoring chances.

Arsenal Grinding For Premier League Success

Arsenal got back on track with a 5-0 drubbing of Nottingham Forest last weekend and the Gunners’ defense continues to be one of the best in the Premier League.

They are only allowing 0.77 npxG per 90 minutes, eight shots per match and have conceded just five big scoring chances. Offensively, the Gunners created under 1 xG against Leeds and Southampton, but overall are still top four in xG, passes into the penalty area and xThreat. 

A special moment for one of our own ❤️

Onto Thursday night, @ReissNelson9 👊 pic.twitter.com/TFvmHzJt24

— Arsenal (@Arsenal) November 2, 2022

Arsenal have played against three big six sides this season — Manchester United, Tottenham and Liverpool — and have a +2.2 xGD in those matches. Additionally, Arsenal are second behind Manchester City with a +0.92 xGD per 90 minutes in the Premier League.

Another advantage Arsenal will have is Chelsea has been below average at defending set pieces, while Arsenal is the second most efficient team in the Premier League on set pieces.

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Chelsea vs. Arsenal Prediction

This is a good spot for Arsenal as they have been almost a full goal better than Chelsea in the Premier League.

Chelsea are also still dealing with a lot of injuries as Wesley Fofana, N’Golo Kante and Reece James are out. Additionally, Mateo Kovacic is questionable. Chelsea are really thin in the midfield right now.

I have the Gunners projected as +132 road favorites, so I like them on the Draw No Bet line.

The Pick: Arsenal – Draw No Bet (-104)

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