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Crystal Palace vs Manchester United Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Crystal Palace vs Manchester United Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview article feature image
Credit:

Simon Stacpoole/Getty. Pictured: Bruno Fernandes.

  • Crystal Palace are underdogs at home against Manchester United on Wednesday.
  • Will the Red Devils secure a victory as short favorites?
  • Here is how Ian Quillen is looking to squeeze value out of the match.

Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United Odds

Wednesday, Jan. 15
3 p.m. ET
Peacock
Crystal Palace Odds +380
Manchester United Odds -145
Draw +280
Over/Under 2.5 (-128 / +106)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (-125 / -115)
Odds via BetMGM. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Manchester United could move into second place in the Premier League with a win in their visit to sliding Crystal Palace on Wednesday night.

United are coming off a cathartic 2-1 victory over derby rivals Manchester City on Sunday, in which they overcame a second-half deficit. They now sit one point back of City and Newcastle United, both of whom won’t play until the weekend.

Palace have lost three in a row and 5-of-6 in all competitions after a hard-luck 1-0 defeat at London rivals Chelsea on Saturday. They are scoreless in their last four Premier League defeats in that stretch, but still sit 12th in the table and seven points clear of the relegation zone.

These teams split their league meetings last season, with each side winning 1-0 at home.

Crystal Palace Struggling Out of Break

Manager Patrick Vieira’s squad have only one victory and three points earned since play resumed following the World Cup break.

Some of that owes to strength of schedule. Palace have been among the most predictable teams in terms of results relative to the overall table. And all three of their losses since the break have come to teams currently above them, while their win came against 17th-placed Bournemouth.

Despite this, there were promising stretches in a couple of those defeats.

Palace were the better side for the opening 45 minutes of a 4-0 home defeat against Tottenham Hotspur.  They failed to capitalize and were done in by some brilliant second-half finishing. The xG totals showed a far closer match than the final score.

Vieira’s men also had several quality chances in their loss at Chelsea on Saturday, which was decided by Kai Havertz’s 64th-minute header.

Palace have also been goal-shy throughout the campaign, with their 17 goals scored tied for sixth-fewest in the EPL.

It’s been worse since the World Cup, and team-leading scorer Wilfried Zaha is goalless in his last six appearances across all competitions.

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Manchester United Firing on All Cylinders

The nature of Bruno Fernades’ equalizer against City may be disputed, but United’s overall performance was deserving of Sunday’s 2-1 derby win.

The Red Devils were exceptionally dangerous on the counter all afternoon. The 1.7 to 0.6 advantage in xG bore that out.

And although manager Erik ten Hag’s squad put a lot of energy into the fightback, they are also building depth capable of handling short turnarounds.

New striking acquisition Wout Weghorst could make his club debut after he was acquired from Burnley, while defenders Harry McGuire and Lisandro Martinez were among those left out of ten Hag’s starting XI against City to contribute late off the bench.

A -4 away goal differential suggests Man United have been much worse away from Old Trafford. However, most of that can be explained by a 4-0 loss at Brentford in the season opener. That came before ten Hag won his battle of wills with now-former attacker Cristiano Ronaldo or had his team fully bought into his tactics.

If there’s a legitimate rub against United’s away performances, it’s in a lack of killer instinct. All five of their away victories have been decided by a single goal.

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Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United Pick

It’s not often that you see two teams in the Premier League whose results are so consistent relative to the table.

United only have one defeat all season against teams in the bottom half of the table, and that 3-1 loss came at Aston Villa in Unai Emery’s managing debut. Palace have not defeated a team in the top half all season.

That makes this a better place to back United as a short favorite than you may think.

But to make it truly worth it, you should also leverage both teams’ relatively modest attacking in a single-game parlay of United and a total under 3.5 goals.

The total has gone under 3.5 goals in all but one of Man U’s 12 league victories, including all five of their away wins. The same is true in six of Palace’s eight defeats.

Overall, it’s a wager that has hit on 8-of-18 occasions (44.4%) between Palace home matches and Man United away games. That’s before adjusting for strength of schedule considerations, which suggest a United victory is a likely outcome.

Pick: Single-Game Parlay  – Manchester United and Under 3.5 (+145)

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