Denmark will be looking for another deep run at the Euros after making the semifinals in the last iteration of the event.
The Denmark team that made a deep run at the previous Euros was in their absolute prime, while this version is a lot older and quite frankly less talented comparatively to the rest of the Euro field. They struggled through qualifying, losing early to Kazakhstan, drew Slovenia and lost on the final day 2-0 to Northern Ireland to finish second behind Slovenia. They'll get another shot at Slovenia in this group, but the opponents they faced will not prepare them both Serbia and England, so it may be an early exit for Denmark.
Let's get into my Denmark Euro 2024 preview.
Tactical Analysis
Denmark are a really good in-possession team, but they also had the benefit of playing against primarily low block, passive defensive teams. Not a single one of the teams they faced (Northern Ireland, Kazakhstan, San Marino, Slovenia or Finland) ever pressed them with regularity, which is going to happen when they play England or Serbia, or if they go deeper into this tournament.
They often build up in a 3-1-6 with the aim of creating a numerical overload wherever the defense is weakest. The two midfielders will occupy the half space, but they will only drop to receive the ball if they want to create a passing triangle and try to one touch passing in tight spaces to create a chance.
Otherwise, Denmark will often overload the wide areas against more narrow structures to try and create chances from out wide.
Denmark are a good out of possession side that will press opponents high, counterpressing when they lose the ball. They had the sixth best PPDA and had the fifth most high recoveries during Euro qualifying, but it’s really hard to quantify how good they actually are defensively given the played five well below average offensive teams that primarily rely on transitions.
There were a few instances where Slovenia were able to patiently build up through their 5-3-2 out of possession structure to create some chances, which is a big concern when they face England. They also were opened up a few times with long balls over the top of the last line of the defense.
They held their opponents in qualifying to under five shots per 90 minutes and even in a friendly against Switzerland held them under one expected goal, but if there is an area of concern, it’s without a doubt set pieces. They allowed the second-highest amount of shots per set piece, which is not good in this group given the three teams they are going to face.
data via WyScout
Pick
Denmark only averaged 1.57 xG per 90 minutes throughout qualifying (removing their two matches against San Marino), which is 13th in the Euro field. How effective can Denmark be in transition? Under Kasper Hjulmand, they have tended to rely more on controlling matches and they will be able to do that against Slovenia, but Serbia and England are going to be a different story.
It also simply comes down to the form Rasmus Hojlund is in if they are going to make a deep run. Speaking of Hojlund, there is a bet I like on him and it's to be the Premier League's top goalscorer at this tournament at +800.
There are a lot of England players priced above Hojlund, but none of them are even the main focal point of the attack. Both Bellingham and Foden barely could average one shot per 90 minutes throughout qualifying and most of Saka’s shots, although he did average over three shots per 90 minutes, came from outside the box.
Harry Kane is the focal point of the England attack and he’s going to be on penalties so those three guys are limited in their opportunities to score multiple goals. Hojlund is the focal point of the Danish attack and he is what they’ve needed for a long time. He really improved over the second half of the season for Manchester United, scoring 11 goals over their last 20 matches. For Denmark, he led them in qualifying with seven goals, and he also averaged 3.5 shots per 90 minutes.
Denmark faced Slovenia again (faced them twice in qualifying, Hojlund scored in the only match he played) and Serbia, who are going to make the match open and transitional, which is where Hojlund thrives.
