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England vs Senegal Odds, Pick, Prediction | World Cup Match Preview

England vs Senegal Odds, Pick, Prediction | World Cup Match Preview article feature image

Simon Bruty/Getty. Pictured: Bukayo Saka.

  • England are big favorites to beat Senegal at the World Cup.
  • Who has the betting edge in the round of 16 fixture?
  • Read on for BJ Cunningham's betting prediction.

England vs. Senegal Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
2 p.m. ET
England Odds-188
Senegal Odds+650
Over/Under2.5 (+130 / -163)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+125 / -175)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

England look to book their spot in the World Cup quarterfinals for a potential heavyweight matchup with France when they take on Senegal.

The Three Lions went unbeaten through the group stage and put on an offensive spectacle, scoring a whopping nine goals in three matches. They are a battle-tested bunch after making it all the way to the Euro final two summers ago, so the moment will not be too big for them.

Senegal got a massive win over Ecuador in their final group stage match to book their spot in the knockout stage. The champions of Africa will be looking to book their second ever trip to the quarterfinals, but they are massive underdogs to do so.

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England Cooking at Just The Right Time

Mighty mighty England looked fantastic in the group stage outside of the match against the United States. The Three Lions created 5.2 xG in those three matches, which was fifth-highest of anyone in the tournament.

England's ability to control possession, find space in between the lines and make the crucial line-breaking pass has been the reason why they've been so difficult to beat for such a long time. They demolished Wales in their last match of the group stage and their passing networks were a thing of beauty.

England 3-0 Wales at World Cup 2022
England 1-2 Iceland at Euro 2016 – the last tournament game without Gareth Southgate in charge.

— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) November 30, 2022

England will keep the pace of this match slow and intricate, which Senegal are perfectly fine playing. The key for England is beating Senegal in the 1-on-1 situations because their attackers are going to get man-marked. England will also have to take advantage of their set pieces, which have been a staple under Gareth Southgate.

So far this tournament, England have generated have only generated 0.88 xG from set pieces, but England did have the sixth-most crosses in the group stage, which will be a key in breaking down Senegal's defense.

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Senegal Stout on The Defensive End

Senegal are an outstanding defensive team. They held all three of their opponents in the group stage under 1 xG but they did allow a ton of possession and chances in their final third and penalty box. 

They have been a bit vulnerable on set pieces, which we know is England's bread and butter. Senegal have allowed 21 passes to be completed into the penalty area and 11 of them have been crosses. Only Australia and Ghana have allowed more crosses into the penalty area this tournament. 

Against the Netherlands, Senegal did a lot of man-marking, which creates a lot of 1-on-1 opportunities. They have the athleticism, pace and ability to do that, but defending Netherlands attackers is a lot different than England forwards. 

The concern here for England is Senegal have so much pace to exploit them in transition, so it’s absolutely vital that England do not lose the ball high up the pitch. Senegal stayed very compact against the Netherlands and did not press them high up the pitch, as their PPDA was 16.1 and they only forced four high turnovers. 

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England vs. Senegal Pick

My guess is that Senegal are going to have the same plan that the United States had against England, which is to take away easy passes to Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham, and Mason Mount in order to force England to play the ball out wide.

However, their inability to defend crosses is really concerning. Plus, let’s not forget depth plays a big part in this tournament, and Senegal don't have that. England have been able to rotate guys throughout throughout the group stage. 

I have England projected at -285, so I like them on the spread of -1 at -110 because as we’ve seen from England in this tournament, once the first goal goes in, the space opens up and they can punish you.

The Pick: England -1 (-110) 

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